I've been writing for years about the low market demand for "luxury apartments" at the outrageous rents being asked for in downtown Bethesda. While thousands of new units have been delivered in Bethesda since the "Great Recession" ended, rents have only skyrocketed, recently surpassing $3000 for 1-bedrooms for the first time at one of the newest buildings. Under the laws of supply-and-demand, and the free enterprise system, landlords should be cutting prices to meet the actual market rate, and undercutting each other to compete with the many options renters theoretically have. Instead, they have maintained the high rents publicly, while quietly filling their many vacant units with illegal Airbnb guests, college students, and corporate contract housing tenants. But the weak demand for the current product at the current price is now spilling into more obvious view, with the proposed replacement of a failed condominium project with a retail building.
Washington, D.C.-based Dochter & Alexander Retail Advisors is pitching a new retail development for 8011 Norfolk Avenue, the former site of Steamers behind the Gallery Bethesda apartment tower. This site, and adjacent property, had been assembled for The Claiborne, a boutique condominium project. Groundbreaking for that building stalled repeatedly, and it is apparently now dead after 10 years of talk and development approvals. The property was sold to Rock Creek Property Group last year.
While the renderings of the proposed retail development look great, the bigger story here is what this is telling us about the multifamily real estate market in Bethesda.
The Bethesda condo market has been dead for some time now. Banks who finance condo mortgages are more than slightly averse to approving loans for condo owners whose neighbors will be Airbnb tourists and college students, to say the least. And you have to actually sell the condos, as opposed to filling them with frat brothers for the spring semester, and they won't sell at way-above-market-rate prices. So condos are kaput for now.
But 10 years ago, you might have seen a rental apartment developer swoop in to snap up 8011 Norfolk once The Claiborne flatlined. They haven't. In fact, multifamily housing building permits have dropped 96% over the last year, Montgomery Perspective reported last month. While blogger Adam Pagnucco is blaming that on the County Council's passage of a rent control law, the fact is that rent control doesn't apply to new construction for 23 years - by which time, reading the Montgomery County cartel tea leaves, the rent control law will have long since been repealed. Most developers sell their buildings shortly after they are delivered, anyway, so they couldn't care less about what happens in 2049.
No, the problem is that there is simply no demand for the apartment product being offered at the price it's being offered at. And now we are seeing the first crack in the dam that developers have constructed to hold off the forces of the free market.
Beyond the lack of multifamily development suitors for 8011 Norfolk, there is a second factor that supports this. That end of the Woodmont Triangle has historically been a terrible location for retail. It's a very quiet, low-traffic area more conducive to a good night's rest than high-octane shopping. If retail is now seen as more viable there than sleepy apartments...well, the multifamily market in Bethesda is in real trouble, folks.
We've already seen the impact of this low demand in the Westbard sector. The number of residential units sought by Regency Centers at Westbard Square was significantly below what was approved in the 2016 Westbard sector plan. Two apartment buildings were entirely deleted, and a third was changed to a nursing home use. A separate developer of two additional projects on the "Park Bethesda" site backed out altogether. When there's red hot market demand for apartments, a collapse like that - or at 8011 Norfolk - simply doesn't happen.
The chickens are slowly coming home to roost for our incompetent and corrupt elected officials who have created this moribund economy. They want to be reelected - and, in some cases, promoted - in November's election. And this is the record they're running on? Heckuva job, Brownie!

















































