Thursday, November 29, 2012

DOUG DUNCAN RUNNING FOR COUNTY EXECUTIVE - WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY POLITICS?

Game. Set. Match. Doug Duncan.

In what may have been the shortest political campaign in Montgomery County history, former county executive Douglas M. Duncan confirmed he would seek that office again yesterday.

The former Rockville mayor and multi-term county executive is virtually assured of victory in 2014.  Duncan is incredibly popular with developers, newspaper editorial boards, and the county's political establishment.

His announcement provides confidence to that establishment.  But it sends the rest of county politics into utter turmoil.

One drawback to the total Democratic domination of Montgomery County is that the ease of winning office has generated a very deep bench of politicians, with many more currently in the "minor leagues" in municipal offices, and the State House.

As current elected officials have chosen to run and run for the same easy offices over and over again, they've created a logjam as bad as the county's traffic.

Just as many impatient Democrats of the next generations were beginning to openly jockey for position in the 2014 election, Duncan delivered a death blow to such aspirations with yesterday's announcement.

Who are the casualties?

George Leventhal and Phil Andrews had already announced campaigns for county executive, and Nancy Floreen, Marc Elrich and Valerie Ervin had been publicly considering entering the race.

All now have little choice but to run for their same council seats again, or exit politics altogether.  To a person, they will almost certainly do the former. 

Ben Kramer, whose father was a well-respected past county executive, was well-positioned as the dark horse in the race.  He's gone, too, now.

Duncan surely plans to make this a two-term deal. Meaning that all of the above contenders are literally stuck until 2022. 

By that time, another whole generation of Democrats will be growing bored in the minor leagues, and begin to challenge the old guard.

Would Ben Kramer challenge for a council seat? Unlikely, as he'd have to take on incumbents in every one, including Nancy Navarro, who outmaneuvered Kramer for that 4th District seat in the first place.

Can they go to Washington?

Not until Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin end their careers in the Senate.  Chris Van Hollen, John Delaney, Donna Edwards and John Sarbanes are all in a similar pickle in their Senate aspirations.

How about running for governor? Nope. Democrats have a full slate of contenders already, and at least two are from Montgomery County.

Aside from all of this fallout, Duncan's only political challenge ahead is the national economy. If we are really entering a recovery, Duncan is in the same position he was in 1994, when the country was emerging from the 1990 recession. Should things turn south, however, it's worth noting that Duncan has never led during bad economic times.

The county still faces a structural deficit, poor job numbers and traffic gridlock.

In regards to the last two, Duncan might offer a slight improvement over Leggett, in that Duncan has been working with a transportation group led by Richard Parsons. My impression of the group is that they recognize the need for multimodal transportation improvements, rather than the Fantasy Island approach of transit-only.  Should Parsons and Duncan be open to studying an Outer Beltway and new Potomac River crossing, the jobs and traffic picture would almost immediately improve.

Can I make one more prediction? You can almost certainly expect the concept of an elected Council President position to be put back on the table now.  That is one way frustrated politicians could create a new, fairly-powerful office for themselves to wait out the Duncan years.

How about the Republicans?

Doug Rosenfeld made the most respectable showing of a Republican executive candidate in eons in 2010. Expect him to run again.

The only other Republican who could make a solid run won't run against Duncan:  another former Rockville mayor, Larry Giammo.  And it's not clear if he's even a Republican anymore.

Connie Morella would have instant credibility as a candidate, but seems to have no interest in elected office since her gerrymandered defeat in 2002.  Another very-well-qualified Republican would be Amy Presley, but she is more likely to run for the council before executive. She currently serves on the county Planning Board, a traditional springboard to elected office.

In short, while we don't know for sure if another Duncan term would benefit the average county resident, there was little joy among Democrats who consider themselves his worthy successor after yesterday's announcement.

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