Friday, January 10, 2020

Hogan express lanes compromise may be a bust for Beltway drivers

Gov. Larry Hogan's compromise agreement on his Express Lanes proposal, which earned a needed second vote from Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot to move the project forward, may still provide traffic relief along I-270. But it could wind up being a bust for drivers on the Capital Beltway.

The compromise essentially puts the Express Lanes plan back to where it was hung up a few months ago. Hogan had agreed to postpone the Express Lanes on the Beltway, and focus on I-270 first. There would be no improvement for Beltway drivers under that scenario.

Then Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam stepped forward with a proposal to assist in expansion of the over-capacity American Legion Bridge in exchange for allowing Virginia's Express Lanes to cross the bridge and run into Maryland. Recognizing that this would only work if the Beltway Express Lanes continued around the interstate, and the reality that the project was more feasible if companies could bid on Beltway Express Lanes that went at least to I-95, Hogan then revived the Beltway portion of the project.

Franchot, under pressure from his constituents and preparing to launch a gubernatorial campaign, immediately withdrew his support again. Hogan then capitulated on the Beltway portion beyond the I-270 spur to regain Franchot's vote. But that compromise is a Beltway backfire, and Hogan appeared to realize he will be long out of office by the time that is apparent.

The reality is, unless voters "get dangerous" as former Gov. Bob Ehrlich exhorted them to years ago, there may not be a single vote for Express Lanes on the Beltway on the Board of Public Works. There very well could be a Democratic governor, a Democratic comptroller, and there certainly will be a Democratic treasurer.

So, Beltway Express Lanes past the I-270 interchange are almost certainly dead.

But the compromise plan will likely make traffic on the Beltway even worse, not better.

First, Northam ingeniously made his problem our problem. Extending Express Lanes over the bridge means that he moves the current choke point where drivers enter and exit those lanes onto the Maryland side of the river. His problem is now solved, and we got played like a violin.

Second, Beltway Express Lanes will now terminate in the vicinity of the existing logjam between River Road and I-270 on the Beltway. This jam is caused not only by lack of capacity, but also by the drivers trying to change lanes to either access I-270 or to continue east on the Beltway. There's also a third factor, which is drivers entering from River Road who then need to merge into the far left lanes to access I-270.

So now you will have cars that want to stay on the Beltway pouring out of the Express Lanes exit in that area - and with the lanes in the center, they will have to merge across several lanes to do so.

Apparently no one bothered to study the reality of the situation on the ground there before making this decision. And the local media was too busy filing some of the most embarrassingly-biased praise reports about the Maryland General Assembly ever published to notice what a just-plain-dumb Express Lanes package was put through by the Board of Public Works.

Northam won. Upcounty drivers may benefit if the lanes really go to Frederick - and especially if they are continuing to Virginia southbound - and that's a very good thing. But Beltway drivers are likely to find this Express Lanes compromise a bust. And we still need a new Potomac River crossing.

There will be no real traffic relief until voters start playing hardball at the ballot box, and elect new leaders who will play hardball in Rockville and Annapolis.

27 comments:

  1. Anonymous5:55 AM

    Thank you for providing both a nice 8x10 photo of Hogan, and two bonus “wallet sized” 4x5 photos. It’s just like my graduation photos. You are so clever!

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  2. Anonymous6:12 AM

    Fantastic photos! You are getting better. Looking forward to more improvements

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  3. Widening the Beltway will come with much pain and little results. Also, will the wealthy in Chevy Chase and Bethesda make the necessary sacrifices for the project?

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  4. Anonymous6:49 AM

    How will there be a "choke point" where 495 and the 270 spur split? Even with the expansion of 495, there will be more lanes north and east of the split than there will be south of there.

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  5. Anonymous7:00 AM

    I wonder if the Purple Line will reduce the amount of east-west pressure on the eastern portion of the Beltway. I know they state that traffic congestion reduction was not a goal of the light-rail line, but in reality, if it is heavily used, it would seem that it might help reduce the congestion to a degree. Maybe this might avoid the massive headache of a decade long construction project to expand the narrow beltway with a right of way enlargement, which would only net four new HOT lanes for folks that can afford the likely enormous tolls.

    There is no doubt that the bottleneck at the bridge will move to the triangular intersection of the beltway and 270, but perhaps the fact that southbound 270 is split to feed eastbound and westbound beltway traffic might help diffuse the congestion. If the Purple Line takes only a small part of the congestion away, perhaps it won’t be quite as bad as Robert has described.

    The addition of a Fredrick to Shady Grove (or Bethesda) monorail, built in the existing 270 right of way, might reduce the congestion even further, and help reinforce the Metro system. Essentially serving as a higher speed extension of the Red Line all the way to Fredrick. I have to admit that I chuckled when I first read about the monorail idea, but the more I think about it, the more sense it makes, and could certainly coexist with the HOT lanes. The big problem would be to smoothly transfer the riders to and from an elevated monorail, to a surface or underground heavy rail line. It almost seems better to just bite the bullet and extend the Red Line on an elevated rail in 270, with minimal stops so it can travel fast, not unlike the very long extension of the Silver Line.

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  6. Anonymous7:23 AM

    Rail transit needs to be built beyond Shady Grove. It seems silly to build monorail rather than heavy rail - I don't see what would be gained.

    Extending the Red Line to Germantown would make it approximately the same length from Metro Center as the Silver Line to Dulles. Another 3 miles would take it all the way to Clarksburg.

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  7. Anonymous7:27 AM

    7:13 AM Dyer brings value every day here, and you bring the same lame personal attacks.

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  8. Anonymous7:44 AM

    7:29 AM Try kindness and empathy. You'll be better off!

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  9. Anonymous8:09 AM

    The express lanes will extend on the Maryland Beltway all the way to I-270. They're not going to stop at the MD/VA border, then restart again on 270.

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  10. Anonymous8:13 AM

    Everyone is a blogging expert and yet Dyer has more web traffic than any other local blog with this one Bethesda site.

    If your relatives want to buy an ad for their restaurant here, send an email to Robert.

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  11. Anonymous8:41 AM

    8:35 AM that's a legacy print media org, not a blog

    Dyer's whole network is still the largest local media org in the county.

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  12. Anonymous8:55 AM

    If the guy posting all the criticism here knows how to make millions on a local blog by running a few banner ads (which cost peanuts), I suggest he start his own blog and retire early.

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  13. Anonymous9:16 AM

    9:04 AM Dyer's troll always believes Dyer's large audience is here to read his comments and that Dyer is always writing to and thinking about him.

    lol. delusional.

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  14. Anonymous9:27 AM

    You'll make peanuts running a few banner ads. That's great, but why focus on that?

    If you want to run ads for relative's restaurant or a friend who's a realtor, more power to you. Have them contact Robert if you want their ads here. But I don't see what that has to do with the content.

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  15. Your Mom's

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  16. 9:04 is right, that is definitely part of the appeal

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  17. Anonymous11:04 AM

    9:58 AM I supported Shelly Skolnick on the basis that we need more women on the Council.

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  18. Anonymous12:56 PM

    Why do you always post a picture of Larry Hogan with hair? It's been 4 years.

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  19. Anonymous2:03 PM

    A lot of different opinions about what is actually planned.
    The official press release
    http://www.virginiadot.org/newsroom/northern-virginia/2019/governor-northam-governor-hogan-announce-historic-‘capital-beltway-accord-to-rebuild-american-legion-bridge-connect-interstat11-12-2019.asp
    says that the express lanes will terminate at River Rd.
    8:09 am says there will be unbroken express lanes I495-I270, which would be great, but it seems not — there will be a break from River Rd to the I270 spur.
    If I’m reading the press release wrongly, or if you have additional information, I would love to be corrected.
    If not, Dyer is right that we are creating a big mess where the express lanes end. Not only will folks entering on River Rd have to get right across if they need I270 — folks exiting the express lanes will have to get right across the other way if they are continuing on the beltway.
    Looks like we won’t get express lanes East of River Rd for a long, long time, if ever. And the express lanes on I270 will stimulate a lot more building along I270, creating a lot more traffic over time at this choke point.

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  20. Boyce Bowles2:17 PM

    2:03 PM It doesn't take much to bring the beltway before the legion bridge to a crawl. And that will back up into River Road, Clara Barton, etc.

    A brief lane closure creates chaos, so tread carefully.

    Let's be clear: part of the problem is the limited number of potomac river crossings. It's not sustainable.

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  21. It is good we are getting our heads out of the sand and are starting to address these traffic choke points.

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  22. 6:49: The choke point will be caused by drivers in the Express Lanes having to exit them, and then merge across several lanes to continue along the Beltway beyond the I-270 split.

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  23. Anonymous7:15 PM

    I love how the comment about the lovely and talented Shelly Skolnick got randomly stranded among the Sheepshill comments that remained after the Great Deletion.

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  24. Anonymous7:20 PM

    Saith Dyer: "The choke point will be caused by drivers in the Express Lanes having to exit them, and then merge across several lanes to continue along the Beltway beyond the I-270 split."

    Why do you assume that the (temporary) end of the Express Lanes will be configured that way? It will be very easy to build lanes connecting from the Express Lanes to the Beltway Inner Loop from the left side where it diverges from the I-270 Spur, no bridge needed. It's not going to be like that awful merge in Northern Virginia, from the Beltway outer loop to the Dulles Access Road where you have to cross SIX LANES IN ONE MILE.

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  25. 7:20: Uh, because they connect to Virginia's, which are in the center of the highway? Think about it. How would you "build lanes" across existing traffic lanes to get from the center to the right lanes of the Beltway?

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  26. Anonymous10:39 AM

    "The official press release
    http://www.virginiadot.org..."

    Um, Dude...that's Virginia. Why would you think that was an "official press release" for a project in Maryland?

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  27. Anonymous6:08 PM

    10:39 AM: please read the press release. Then you will know.

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