Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Leggett: Montgomery County becoming a "bedroom community" as jobs go elsewhere

The latest vindication of my diagnosis of what ails Montgomery County comes from our highest-ranking elected official, and de facto leader of the Democratic Party, County Executive Ike Leggett. I've been noting for years, to the displeasure of the County's political cartel, that we are becoming a bedroom community for the growing job centers elsewhere in our region. In the meantime, our private sector economy has become moribund.

Leggett now agrees with me. In testimony before the County Council's Government Operations and Fiscal Policy Committee last Thursday, Leggett's special assistant Joy Nurmi relayed his concerns on this very topic.

Nurmi noted that the percentage of development that is residential rose between 2005 and 2014, while the percentage that is office, retail and industrial declined. She said Leggett opposes impact tax increases on developers that could disincentivize office, retail and industrial projects.

"We are trending toward becoming a bedroom community and he doesn’t want to drive us further in that direction," Nurmi warned the Council. "It is a trend. And he is very concerned about disincentivizing commercial development anywhere in the County."

It is indeed a trend, with the County Council and/or Planning Board having allowed commercial properties, job centers and office buildings in Rockledge, Wheaton, Westbard, Aspen Hill, and the I-270 corridor to be converted to residential in recent months and years. The City of Rockville has approved similar conversions in King Farm, Tower Oaks, and the Shady Grove corridor in the last 24 months.

Loss of office space, businesses and land for corporate headquarters (MoCo hasn't attracted a major one in two decades) means more and more commuters driving to reach job centers elsewhere in Northern Virginia. And over the last 16 years, Montgomery County lost over 2000 retail jobs, according to the Maryland Association of Retailers. All of that means more traffic congestion on County roads.

Leggett joins other heavy hitters who are now starting to acknowledge the truth I've been reporting for years. The Washington Post recently referred to the County's eastern half as "economically moribund" (hopefully in the near future, they'll realize the western half is, too. But it's huge that they even acknowledged half is). And the former Chief of Staff to failed Councilmember Hans Riemer concurred, declaring Montgomery County's private sector economy "stagnant," and suffering from "weak economic performance" and "sluggish growth" during his ex-boss's tenure.

I couldn't have said it better myself!

In addition to the loss of those retail jobs, Montgomery County today has less private sector jobs than it did in 2001. Ouch.

During that time, Loudoun County gained 42,929 jobs. The District gained 78,011 jobs.

How many did we gain? Zero.

In fact, we had only a net loss of jobs, losing 3885 while the counties all around us averaged 9.5% in private sector job growth during those 15 years. Montgomery County is indeed a great place to live - hence our always-booming residential growth. Increasingly, however, it is not a place to work.

Leggett is correct. I'm correct. We are becoming the bedroom community for the region. And now we need to get a County Council that doesn't live in an alternate reality, and can get us out of the economic development mess we're in. We can start by voting for term limits this November.

#MoCoTermLimits
#ThrowTheBumsOut
#Jobs

45 comments:

Anonymous said...

term limits are on the way!! adios!

Robert said...

Ok, so what's the solution?

I agree we should have term limits, but that's not in and of itself a solution. What are the new leader's plans and ideas to solve the problem?

Dyer has mentioned building a bridge before, but what are the costs and studied impact? Is there an economic analysis somewhere?

What other ideas does Dyer have and the supporting evidence for them?

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Loudoun County's number of new jobs added was far less than the number of new residents added during that time period. So they actually became more of a bedroom community.

Robert Dyer said...

6:07: A new Potomac River crossing would reduce traffic congestion on the Beltway and I-270, and give direct access to Dulles Airport. The MWCOG study showed that about 25% of traffic on the American Legion bridge during rush hours is headed to or from the Dulles area.

We also need to reduce our taxes and regulations, pursue more growth industries like we did with biotech, and finish building our master plan highway system, including the M-83 Highway upcounty, and extending the Montrose Parkway to the ICC, just for starters. Express Lanes on the Beltway and 270.

6:12: The fact is, we got whipped by rural Loudoun County. There's no way to spin the numbers to make your buddies on the Council look good. They blew it big time. Humiliating.

Anonymous said...

MoCo's population grew by 125,000 during that same period.

Montgomery County
New residents - 125,000
New jobs - -3,885 (loss)
Job deficit - 128,885

Loudoun County
New residents - 200,000
New private sector jobs - 42,929
Job deficit - 157,071

Advantage - MOCO MACHINE!!!

Robert said...

Hi Robert,

So if there is a new crossing and the American Legion Bridge becomes less congested (let's say it's not temporarily so, and that they both don't reach capacity faster than planned), 1) what's the cost/logistics of how you're going to build this bridge and access to it and 2) what's the economic impact for Montgomery County?

Same with the highway - what's the cost and economic impact, etc.?

What's our taxes and regulations compared to other areas that are doing well (you say NoVa is doing better, do you have their comparative info?)? What's the analysis of high tax vs low tax counties? Is there evidence of stronger business growth in low tax areas you can provide data for?

--

Can you clarify your rude response to anonymous at 6:12? 6:12 said Loudoun added fewer jobs than residents. What's the comparative rate for Montgomery County?

--

I really don't disbelieve you, it would be really helpful to see some data and analysis versus broad scope ideas.

Anonymous said...

Dyer's "jobs creation proposal" for Montgomery County is to make it easier to commute to Loudoun County.

He really must be an agent of the Confederate State of Virginia.

Anonymous said...

"Leggett now agrees with me."

Lol what a boldfaced lie.

Robert Dyer said...

6:32: The new bridge and road would be private, toll facilities, so there would be essentially no cost to the taxpayer to build and operate them. I would look at Texas as a good example of tax and regulation policy that creates jobs.

6:39: No, it's because our lack of access to Dulles is one of several deterrents to major international firms moving here. I realize if you agree with Hans Riemer that the future of economic development is farmers markets and 9-person offices that you may lack an understanding of why international businesses need the frequency of flights and destinations that only Dulles can provide.

6:39: He agrees - it's an exact quote "bedroom community," moron.

Anonymous said...

Texas's economy is utterly dependent on oil.

Anonymous said...

The historically true reason why Northern Va attracts more jobs than MoCo is the proximity to Dulles airport, and that corridor. It has been and always will be. Most of the tech firms and industries along this corridor want and need quick access to air transport. This fact was identified years ago by Stephen Fuller, our regions foremost regional analyst. Try as MoCo might, we are spitting in the wind, when it comes to this particular segment of the employment industry. This is the main reason earlier councils focused on bio-tech and biomedical as the catalyst for MoCo development and growth. Stick with what you know and make it flourish, dont try to steal the neighbors tools. Learn this history Dyer and quit your bitching. Your imitation Trump is really annoying.

Anonymous said...

Leggett does now agree with Robert Dyer on this issue.

It is breathtaking that we're considering becoming a sleepy bedroom community. So much for trying to appeal to millennials with all of the jobs in other jurisdictions.

Anonymous said...

Breitbart@BethesdaRow

Anonymous said...

"The new bridge and road would be private, toll facilities, so there would be essentially no cost to the taxpayer to build and operate them."

You might want to read the history of the Dulles Greenway some time.

Robert Dyer said...

6:56: Trump is promoting a new Potomac River bridge?

By the way, hate to break it to you, but Fairfax is building its own biotechnology sector. So they'll have the airport AND biotech. Eventually they'll crush us in that, as well. This is why we need new ideas from people like me, who actually understand how international business works.

Anonymous said...

7:06 agrees with Dyer 24/7

Robert Dyer said...

7:24: We'd be better served to examine private toll roads that actually are successful in the U.S. and around the world. Your idea is like saying we can't build a transit center again just because the MoCo cartel screwed up the Silver Spring Transit Center.

Robert Dyer said...

7:26: Amazing how you keep disagreeing with me, but slowly each of my arguments are being confirmed by your own establishment. Who's the dummy now?

Robert Dyer said...

6:51: Wrong. Texas passed California as the leading exporter of tech among American states. You get Four Pinocchios for that lie.

Robert Dyer said...

You know the MoCo cartel has lost the debate when their answer is,"But but but...Donald Trump!" Hysterical.

Anonymous said...

Funny thing is that MoCo Dems spend more time thinking/talking about Trump than republicans do.

Anonymous said...

I think it would be politically advantageous to renounce Trump like Hogan did.

Anonymous said...

How many Trump voters here anyway?

Robert said...

Hi Robert Dyer,

Ok so if the funds are private, still how would the logistics work for where it goes? Is the land available? Is it eminent domain? How long would it take? What's the rate of return, etc.?

Can you explain how Texas does a good job of low taxes and regulation successfully? I'm hearing from another comment that the Texas economy is driven by oil. And how would you apply these same techniques to Montgomery County? Would programs be cut and which ones?

So the lack of Dulles access you would fix with a new river crossing (logistics to be determined), and the rest of the business economy you would fix with lower taxes and regulations (details to be provided). Can you clarify this a bit further?

Thanks!

Robert said...

Also very much so the economic impact of a new river crossing - is this based on any existing study or you have any data or analysis that supports this theory?

Anonymous said...

8:14 and 8:15. What are you trying to get at? I don't notice you asking these questions from the other local outlets.

These are extremely specific and detailed questions (rate of return?, interaction of oil in state's economy?) that don't have yes and no answers, and have many variables.
Even our elected officials couldn't answer easily without research.

You seem to be trying to get Dyer on the record for his thoughts and policies. And in that passive-aggressive tactic keep asking for more and more specifics.

Robert said...

Hi Anonymous 8:34, that's a somewhat fair question (or at least parts of it). I don't ask these questions to other local outlets because they don't really assert their opinions on the issue as strongly as Robert Dyer does, just report the news (mostly).

What I'm trying to drive at and get to an answer is Dyer always says it's all being done wrong and everyone is doing such a terrible job, but what's the alternative better solution and can he back that up? Complaining about a situation without a viable alternative doesn't do anyone much good. And so far that's all we've seen Dyer really do. So I'm asking him nicely and politely to help explain his ideas better.

Absolutely I'd like to get Dyer on the record for his thoughts and policies. He tells us his thoughts and policies all the time already publicly. We would just all like some more details other than "the other guy stinks" and "build a bridge and they will come." Granted of course I have issue with existing councilmembers saying that too (say BRT).

I'm being fairly clear and straightforward in my questions.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your answer. I guess what's bothering me is that there may not be a definitive or obvious plan and that seemed to be what you were asking.

Honestly, until the voting public gets a clear understanding where the money is already promised, we won't have an idea of what can be spent and how encompassing or restrictive any committed future plans may present.

Anonymous said...

@ 7:43 AM - Agreed. Republicans find their presidential nominee too embarrassing to talk about. Democrats, on the other hand, realize what a godsend it is to have him as their party's opponent.

Anonymous said...

"people like me, who actually understand how international business works."

Funniest line of the week.

What exactly is your experience in this area, Dyer?

Anonymous said...

There are many transit terminals in the USA that are comparable to the SSTC.

By contrast, the Dulles Greenway is the only private expressway that was a private entity from the start and which is not adjacent to an existing public road, in the USA.

Anonymous said...

You FAILED at getting elected, LOSER!

Robert Dyer said...

8:14: The right-of-way exists between the current stub of I-370 and the Potomac River. There's not much that would need to be taken in eminent domain proceedings. There's also a second option, to connect the Montrose Parkway to Falls Road and the ICC, which would then link the ICC to the original right-of-way that extends to the Potomac, as well. The first option would be better in terms of getting the project built faster.

We also need to capitalize on the nearby assets we have to become a capital for the private space industry, and aerospace in general - Lockheed, Goddard Flight Center, multiple airbases and proving grounds, and the Wallops Island launch facility.

Texas also shows you need a qualified workforce, and we can partner with aerospace firms that would move or start here to link up with our worst-performing public schools. There could be classroom facilities on-site, and these credits or internships would put those students at the top of those companies' hiring lists when they graduate from college.

We could tie more generous incentive packages to the company's agreement to participate in that program.

Robert Dyer said...

9:07: Not true. Other local news outlets are strongly biased in favor of the MoCo cartel. They even get attaboys from our corrupt councilmembers on social media for their "good work." That's why residents turn here for the real scoop on what's going on.

Robert said...

Hi Robert Dyer,

"The right-of-way exists between the current stub of I-370 and the Potomac River. There's not much that would need to be taken in eminent domain proceedings. There's also a second option, to connect the Montrose Parkway to Falls Road and the ICC, which would then link the ICC to the original right-of-way that extends to the Potomac, as well. The first option would be better in terms of getting the project built faster."

Ok so I understand the possible logistics. Is there any evidence this extra crossing would help increase the Montgomery County business economy? Do you have any links to analysis that shows this will happen?

"We also need to capitalize on the nearby assets we have to become a capital for the private space industry, and aerospace in general - Lockheed, Goddard Flight Center, multiple airbases and proving grounds, and the Wallops Island launch facility."

So how do we capitalize? What are your ideas for doing this? Is the county not trying now?

"Texas also shows you need a qualified workforce, and we can partner with aerospace firms that would move or start here to link up with our worst-performing public schools. There could be classroom facilities on-site, and these credits or internships would put those students at the top of those companies' hiring lists when they graduate from college."

I thought we had one of the most educated workforces in the nation?

Certainly those are great ideas and likely be great for the long game, but hardly enough to move the business economy needle all that much.

"We could tie more generous incentive packages to the company's agreement to participate in that program."

I don't necessarily disagree. What programs and incentives do we have now? What are we not doing that NoVa or other successful business environments are doing?

I remember Giffords said...

Plenty of anger on both sides.

Anonymous said...

Is Dyer still fantasizing about poaching the Boeing factory in Everett, Washington? South Carolina tried doing that and it didn't work out well for them.

Also, where would you put a huge factory like that? Not really any large tracts of land adjacent to railroads and highways available in MoCo.

Robert Dyer said...

2:58: You don't think adding more aerospace firms to the County would "move the business economy needle all that much?" I doubt many economic development experts would agree with you.

Workforce development is a way we can solve our achievement gap, and address the low opportunity levels for African American students and graduates.

NoVa is "doing" all the things I mentioned - building new roads, finishing others, expanding VRE/Amtrak service, making sure you have the jobs first at Tysons before adding the residential, and construction of express lanes, to name a few.

Robert Dyer said...

7:40: I would put a factory on the Fairgrounds site in Gaithersburg. It's right on a CSX rail main line, and at an interstate interchange. The current council would probably put another town center there with minimum wage jobs. That's why they're failing.

Maloney Concrete said...

I'm not hearing the Tysons - White Flint comparisons anymore. Guess we've given up on that idea? I don't see the planned office space needed to compete with Tysons.

Anonymous said...

8:14 And take away my yearly fun at the county fair? C'mon think of the children!

Anonymous said...

The site of the fairgrounds isn't even big enough to contain the factory building for such an aerospace factory, let alone all the related facilities that would be needed... such as an airport.

Anonymous said...

@ 7:10 AM - It's odd that a self-proclaimed "lifelong resident" of MoCo would so flippantly do away with one of our most treasured traditions. Maybe he has bad memories of the insults from the guy in the dunking booth.

Robert Dyer said...

7:28: You're clueless, as usual. There's been a plan for years to move the Fair elsewhere.

7:25: I said I would put "a factory;" you're the one talking about some factory that isn't even on the table. Plenty of room there to manufacture and ship products out by rail and truck. Autos, rocket components and engines, aircraft parts, etc. The sky's the limit.

Anonymous said...

Oh man I will miss the fair :( Ugh the thought of a factory in its place :(