LATEST FORECAST: HURRICANE SANDY WILL HIT MARYLAND, DC HARD BUT EVEN WORSE IN BALTIMORE, DELMARVA, PHILADELPHIA, NJ, NYC, LONG ISLAND

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

The latest predicted track for Hurricane Sandy is only slightly better news for Maryland and the DC area.  Rather than the very-worst-case scenario of a landfall between Norfolk and Delaware, Sandy is now expected to slam directly into the New Jersey coast.

What does this mean?  We will still have wind damage, falling trees, power outages, and transportation disruptions.  Don't be fooled; this is still potentially one of the worst storms in Mid-Atlantic history.

The difference is that many forecasters - and remember, these are just forecasts! - have trimmed our threat levels a notch.  We are now expected to get 4-8" of rain, with some saying 4-6", in the DC area.  And some are predicting wind gusts of 60 MPH, rather than the 70 MPH we were hearing on Saturday.

In contrast, the same models are showing 8" of rain, with 12" in hard-hit areas, and wind gusts of 70+ MPH for the Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and possibly Baltimore.  Charm City is on the southern edge of the new track, but all we know for sure is that Baltimore will have slightly worse conditions than the DC area, should this track hold.

60 MPH is still enough to blow window panes out, and knock over trees and power lines.

Another change, is that the worst peak of the storm for us has moved later into Monday evening, and into the late night hours.  Conditions will begin to deteriorate today in the DC and Maryland area.  I'm sure you can hear the winds starting to pick up intermittently, even as you read this.

Monday morning rush hour will be unpleasant, but the evening will be the one to cause the most concern.  I noticed that Sandy has slowed by 3 MPH just since 5:00 AM, so you have to factor those kinds of speed variables into the timing.

Tropical wind and rain conditions will continue in the DC area and Maryland suburbs into Thursday.  This could have a potential impact on Halloween.

Here is the latest data on Sandy:

LOCATION:  395 miles E of Charleston, SC

WINDS:  75 MPH

MOVING:  NE at 10 MPH

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WHEN WILL HURRICANE SANDY HIT BETHESDA AND THE DC AREA? - BETHESDA WEATHER UPDATE

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

Tropical Storm Sandy is currently steaming directly towards Jamaica, and is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane before the end of the day.

Will Sandy hit the DC area, and the East Coast in general?  Yes, on Sunday and Monday in some degree, based on two forecast models.  Worse yet, the European model that has historically been the most accurate, is predicting a close shave for the Mid-Atlantic northward.  One Accuweather track even shows it going directly up the Chesapeake Bay.

What a low pressure front does this weekend will ultimately decide our fate.  If it stays over us, Sandy will be forced out to sea.  But if it tracks westward of the East Coast, Sandy could land a formidable punch to the DC area.

Here are the latest stats on TS Sandy:

LOCATION:  190 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica

WINDS:  70 MPH

MOVING: N at 14 MPH

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