HURRICANE SANDY WILL HIT MARYLAND, DC TONIGHT - UPDATE, STATS - 23' WAVES IN NJ, SNOW FALLING IN WEST VIRGINIA

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

Hurricane Sandy is strengthening, and has just begun the northwestern turn that will bring it ashore this evening.  Sandy is likely to hit the New Jersey coast, where waves of 23' have been measured this morning.

By the time that happens  - during the late evening rush hour or later - expect 4-8 inches of rain, and winds of 40-60 MPH throughout.  There is a flash flood warning in effect, as well as a high wind warning.

Plan to stay indoors this evening, and stay tuned here and on Twitter at @BethesdaRow for Sandy updates.

Here is the latest data on Sandy:

LOCATION:  385 miles SSE of New York City

WINDS:  85 MPH

MOVING:  NW at 20 MPH

Latest developments:

+Bethesda Circulator service canceled today

+Suburban Hospital ED open; surgeries as scheduled

+17" of rainfall over the Chesapeake Bay as of 7 AM, according to Weather Channel

+Currently snowing in Beckley, Bluefield West Virginia, and in Marion, Virginia

+Coast Guard on rescue mission after ship in path of Sandy radios distress call off Atlantic Coast

+Flood warning for Philadelphia and suburbs

+N end of Atlantic City boardwalk collapsing

+Ocean City, MD fishing pier damaged, in danger of collapse

LATEST FORECAST: HURRICANE SANDY WILL HIT MARYLAND, DC HARD BUT EVEN WORSE IN BALTIMORE, DELMARVA, PHILADELPHIA, NJ, NYC, LONG ISLAND

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

The latest predicted track for Hurricane Sandy is only slightly better news for Maryland and the DC area.  Rather than the very-worst-case scenario of a landfall between Norfolk and Delaware, Sandy is now expected to slam directly into the New Jersey coast.

What does this mean?  We will still have wind damage, falling trees, power outages, and transportation disruptions.  Don't be fooled; this is still potentially one of the worst storms in Mid-Atlantic history.

The difference is that many forecasters - and remember, these are just forecasts! - have trimmed our threat levels a notch.  We are now expected to get 4-8" of rain, with some saying 4-6", in the DC area.  And some are predicting wind gusts of 60 MPH, rather than the 70 MPH we were hearing on Saturday.

In contrast, the same models are showing 8" of rain, with 12" in hard-hit areas, and wind gusts of 70+ MPH for the Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, and possibly Baltimore.  Charm City is on the southern edge of the new track, but all we know for sure is that Baltimore will have slightly worse conditions than the DC area, should this track hold.

60 MPH is still enough to blow window panes out, and knock over trees and power lines.

Another change, is that the worst peak of the storm for us has moved later into Monday evening, and into the late night hours.  Conditions will begin to deteriorate today in the DC and Maryland area.  I'm sure you can hear the winds starting to pick up intermittently, even as you read this.

Monday morning rush hour will be unpleasant, but the evening will be the one to cause the most concern.  I noticed that Sandy has slowed by 3 MPH just since 5:00 AM, so you have to factor those kinds of speed variables into the timing.

Tropical wind and rain conditions will continue in the DC area and Maryland suburbs into Thursday.  This could have a potential impact on Halloween.

Here is the latest data on Sandy:

LOCATION:  395 miles E of Charleston, SC

WINDS:  75 MPH

MOVING:  NE at 10 MPH

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WILL HURRICANE SANDY HIT MARYLAND, DC AREA? LATEST MODEL SAYS YES! EAST COAST FRANKENSTORM

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

The historically-most-accurate Euro model of Hurrricane Sandy is now predicting an almost-certain East Coast landfall by the storm, between Monday and Tuesday.  Our area is within the red zone that stretches from Norfolk, VA to Nova Scotia.  We are almost sure to be hit by Sandy, either directly or in passing.

Remember the three possible scenarios I mentioned yesterday, and how we'd have to wait until certain atmospheric trends played out, to know which track it would take?

Those have been whittled down to one by the latest Euro model.  What changed?  In addition to the jet stream staying too far west, a dominating clockwise current northeast of the U.S. is likely to hurl Sandy westward, and right into the Eastern seaboard.

Barring the chance that Sandy slips eastward before hitting that northeast high pressure system, we are now almost certainly in for a wild and wooly Monday.  Our worst case scenario would be Sandy making landfall between Norfolk and Delaware.  Aside from the danger of Sandy actually coming up the Chesapeake Bay, those located west, north and northwest of the landfall point will be the hardest hit.  And that would include the DC area.

In such a scenario, this could be a historic Mid-Atlantic storm.  Even if that doesn't happen, this pre-Halloween Frankenstorm will still cause power outages, falling trees, flooding and disruption of rail and air transportation in the Northeast Corridor.  Adding to flooding concerns, we will have a Full Moon when Sandy makes landfall.  Tides will already be higher as a result.  Forecasts call for 6" of rainfall; currently, Sandy is producing rainfall of 12-20" in the Carribean.

Continue to monitor the hurricane reports, as the final turn eastward by Sandy as it moves up the coast is the one thing the Euro model hasn't - and can't - show in advance.

One other point on flooding:  If you are in a residential neighborhood, make sure the gutters along your street are free of leaves.  Leaf collection is a couple of weeks off; leaf piles in the gutter can cause streets to flood by slowing and preventing normal function by stormwater systems.

Bottom line:  Frankenstorm may deliver pre-Halloween screams.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Here's the latest on Sandy:

LOCATION:  485 miles SSE of Charleston, SC

WINDS:  80 MPH

MOVING:  NW at 13 MPH

Latest Developments:

+HURRICANE WATCH FOR NW BAHAMAS

+TROPICAL STORM WATCH BETWEEN

SAVANNAH RIVER AND

OREGON INLET, NC

HURRICANE SANDY UPDATE: 3 SCENARIOS FOR BETHESDA, DC AREA

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

Sandy met expectations yesterday, strengthening into a hurricane even earlier in the day than expected.  Currently a Category 2 storm, Sandy has already hit Jamaica and Cuba.

What now for the U.S. East Coast?

The outcome is just as up in the air as it was yesterday at this hour.

But atmospheric conditions suggest 3 likely outcomes.

The worst case scenario is a direct hit to Maryland, via the Chesapeake Bay.  Based on current behavior, Sandy should arrive here after 8:00 AM Monday morning.  So we have a few days to track how this is going, and prepare accordingly.

Even under milder Scenario 2, Sandy will give a Winnie the Pooh-worthy blustery day - or 2 or 3.  We could still have some wind damage and power outages, but not a direct hit.

Finally, Scenario 3 finds us escaping unscathed, with no storms at all, and a return to cooler fall weather.  It all depends on that low pressure system, and if it stays over us through Monday.  That would push Sandy away from the East Coast and out to sea.

Right now, you may want to think about securing or bringing in any objects in your yard, or on your apartment balcony, as we get closer to Monday.  That would include Halloween decorations, for example.

Let's hope for the best, as a direct hit would make for a scary Halloween indeed!

Here are the latest stats for Sandy:

LOCATION:  40 miles E of Holguin, Cuba

WINDS:  105 MPH

MOVING:  N at 18 MPH

Latest Developments:

+TROPICAL STORM WARNING

S OF FLAGLER BEACH, FL

+AIR FORCE RECON PLANE

TO FLY NEAR SANDY

LATER THIS A.M.