WHEN HURRICANE SANDY HITS MARYLAND, DC, PLAN FOR "UNPRECEDENTED" WEATHER CONDITIONS - FRANKENSTORM UPDATE

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

Over the night, Hurricane Sandy weakened into Tropical Storm Sandy.  But don't be fooled:  Sandy is already a hurricane again.

The word most common in the latest predictions is "unprecedented."  Sandy may make landfall Monday as a Category 2 hurricane in the worst case scenario.  One forecast predicts that we could experience 48 straight hours of 70 MPH wind gusts.  Some forecasters now expect 8" of rain - that's a 2" increase since yesterday - and isolated pockets of up to 12".

We are now under a flood watch through 8:00 AM Tuesday.  The only positive news is that the latest model is showing the very worst flooding now slightly north of DC's latitude.  The bad news is that the storm will have serious impacts hundreds of miles from its center.

Let's hope Sandy stays weak.  But the storm's slowing speed does give it more ability to gain power from the ocean below it.  Fortunately, the Atlantic is not as warm as the Caribbean.  Alas, Sandy is already carrying a heavy load of tropical moisture with it as it travels toward us.

Here are the latest stats for Sandy:

LOCATION:  350 miles SE of Charleston, SC

WINDS:  70 MPH

MOVING:  NNE at 10 MPH

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 of Sandy in Bethesda

WILL HURRICANE SANDY HIT MARYLAND, DC AREA? LATEST MODEL SAYS YES! EAST COAST FRANKENSTORM

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

The historically-most-accurate Euro model of Hurrricane Sandy is now predicting an almost-certain East Coast landfall by the storm, between Monday and Tuesday.  Our area is within the red zone that stretches from Norfolk, VA to Nova Scotia.  We are almost sure to be hit by Sandy, either directly or in passing.

Remember the three possible scenarios I mentioned yesterday, and how we'd have to wait until certain atmospheric trends played out, to know which track it would take?

Those have been whittled down to one by the latest Euro model.  What changed?  In addition to the jet stream staying too far west, a dominating clockwise current northeast of the U.S. is likely to hurl Sandy westward, and right into the Eastern seaboard.

Barring the chance that Sandy slips eastward before hitting that northeast high pressure system, we are now almost certainly in for a wild and wooly Monday.  Our worst case scenario would be Sandy making landfall between Norfolk and Delaware.  Aside from the danger of Sandy actually coming up the Chesapeake Bay, those located west, north and northwest of the landfall point will be the hardest hit.  And that would include the DC area.

In such a scenario, this could be a historic Mid-Atlantic storm.  Even if that doesn't happen, this pre-Halloween Frankenstorm will still cause power outages, falling trees, flooding and disruption of rail and air transportation in the Northeast Corridor.  Adding to flooding concerns, we will have a Full Moon when Sandy makes landfall.  Tides will already be higher as a result.  Forecasts call for 6" of rainfall; currently, Sandy is producing rainfall of 12-20" in the Carribean.

Continue to monitor the hurricane reports, as the final turn eastward by Sandy as it moves up the coast is the one thing the Euro model hasn't - and can't - show in advance.

One other point on flooding:  If you are in a residential neighborhood, make sure the gutters along your street are free of leaves.  Leaf collection is a couple of weeks off; leaf piles in the gutter can cause streets to flood by slowing and preventing normal function by stormwater systems.

Bottom line:  Frankenstorm may deliver pre-Halloween screams.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Here's the latest on Sandy:

LOCATION:  485 miles SSE of Charleston, SC

WINDS:  80 MPH

MOVING:  NW at 13 MPH

Latest Developments:

+HURRICANE WATCH FOR NW BAHAMAS

+TROPICAL STORM WATCH BETWEEN

SAVANNAH RIVER AND

OREGON INLET, NC

HURRICANE SANDY UPDATE: 3 SCENARIOS FOR BETHESDA, DC AREA

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

Sandy met expectations yesterday, strengthening into a hurricane even earlier in the day than expected.  Currently a Category 2 storm, Sandy has already hit Jamaica and Cuba.

What now for the U.S. East Coast?

The outcome is just as up in the air as it was yesterday at this hour.

But atmospheric conditions suggest 3 likely outcomes.

The worst case scenario is a direct hit to Maryland, via the Chesapeake Bay.  Based on current behavior, Sandy should arrive here after 8:00 AM Monday morning.  So we have a few days to track how this is going, and prepare accordingly.

Even under milder Scenario 2, Sandy will give a Winnie the Pooh-worthy blustery day - or 2 or 3.  We could still have some wind damage and power outages, but not a direct hit.

Finally, Scenario 3 finds us escaping unscathed, with no storms at all, and a return to cooler fall weather.  It all depends on that low pressure system, and if it stays over us through Monday.  That would push Sandy away from the East Coast and out to sea.

Right now, you may want to think about securing or bringing in any objects in your yard, or on your apartment balcony, as we get closer to Monday.  That would include Halloween decorations, for example.

Let's hope for the best, as a direct hit would make for a scary Halloween indeed!

Here are the latest stats for Sandy:

LOCATION:  40 miles E of Holguin, Cuba

WINDS:  105 MPH

MOVING:  N at 18 MPH

Latest Developments:

+TROPICAL STORM WARNING

S OF FLAGLER BEACH, FL

+AIR FORCE RECON PLANE

TO FLY NEAR SANDY

LATER THIS A.M.