STUDY: NO DEMAND FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY BRT SYSTEM

As if you needed any more evidence that The Emperor's New Bus, a.k.a. Montgomery County Bus Rapid Transit, would be a $10 billion boondoggle, a new study says it... would be a $10 billion boondoggle.

The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, which was paid taxpayer money to do yet another study, concluded there is insufficient demand for BRT service in the county.

While that general conclusion is sound, and supported by solid arguments, there are other conclusions drawn in the study that are empirically incorrect.

For example, the study claims that BRT riders would save 10 minutes in commuting time. But that is inaccurate. The BRT system proposed requires 50 minutes to travel 15 miles, according to the MCDOT.  That would be nearly an hour from Clarksburg to the Shady Grove Metro station, for example.

Given that, even in the typical morning rush hour, you could drive from Clarksburg to Shady Grove in far less time than that, who in their right mind would use BRT?

The second flawed argument, and one that suspiciously supports one BRT faction's new plan, is that Route 355 is the one corridor where BRT could work.

When you apply the reality of 15 miles in 50 minutes (the county's own stat - not mine!), you not only realize the claim of 10-minute time savings is complete bunk, but that this would be a disaster on 355.  Remember, the latest 355 plan calls for a 33% reduction in automobile capacity in order to make room for BRT. And, the BRT "signal priority," which stops car traffic while giving BRT a green light, would make it impossible to synchronize signals during rush hour, causing even worse traffic jams.

Beyond that, as I've mentioned before, you would be duplicating Metro Red Line service. Since Metro and cars are both faster than BRT, who would be riding the BRT?

And, ultimately, where are you going on this BRT? Most commuters are heading into DC.  But, BRT would dead end in Bethesda. So, if you have to transfer to Metro at Bethesda anyway, why would you take a slow BRT and be out in the heat, cold, or bad weather? Any sensible person would just board Metro to begin with.

If it doesn't work, is nonsensically impractical, and duplicates an existing - and costly - service, why would politicians be heck-bent on 355 BRT?

Aside from the hubris of some, who want this "thing" to tout when they run for higher office, it's a not-so-surprising reason: developers.

You can't provide the highway capacity necessary for the growth planned at White Flint, without building the Rockville Freeway through White Flint.  But if you build out the necessary roads, congestion will ease, and developers will have lost one of their straw justifications for "smart growth:" traffic congestion.

By cooking the numbers and getting away from strict automobile volume counts, as the County Council is currently attempting to do, they will gain fake "capacity" with BRT.  This will allow the dense, concrete canyon they imagine as the future of 355 between White Flint and Clarksburg, while snarling traffic to a dead stop.  The result? Developers get to build. Traffic gets even worse. And then developers will get to build even more, saying only high-density "smart growth" can solve the congestion problem (that they are creating).

That is a bus, and a future, rapidly going nowhere.

ANOTHER DC OUTER BELTWAY STUDY

The Virginia Department of Transportation made a quiet announcement right before Thanksgiving last week.  It plans to begin a new study of traffic utilizing existing Potomac River bridges, between Point of Rocks and the Harry Nice Bridge (Morgantown).

The study will get underway in the coming weeks, and is expected to conclude in Spring 2013.

When completed, VDOT expects to have a new data set from which to extrapolate future demand for new crossings.

They are asking Maryland and DC to cooperate in the study.

Of course, this is a complete waste of money. We know the demand for additional Potomac River crossings exists.  It was amply demonstrated in the American Legion Bridge study I presented to you here in exhaustive detail months ago.

VDOT boss Sean Connaughton and Governor Bob McDonnell support a new crossing, and have taken substantive steps toward that goal. Maryland is in the grip of an anti-highway legislative majority in Annapolis and Rockville.  But economic and congestion reality make their begrudging cooperation inevitable.  Lack of direct access to Dulles Airport, and timewasting commutes, cost Montgomery County jobs every day the status quo persists.

Foolish decisions in the past canceled many bridges, including the Rockville Freeway-Fairfax County Parkway bridge at Riverbend Park, the I-266 bridge into Georgetown, the Arizona Avenue bridge, and two Outer Beltway bridges.

Have an arterial blockage like that in a human, and you would require immediate surgery. But in this case, politicians are willing to let you and Montgomery County's economy suffer.

Stop the studies. That money could be better spent on the hungry and homeless.

Start building the highways! We know they're needed. Instead of having a theatrical BRT/gas tax summit in Annapolis, we should have a real crossjurisdictional summit on solutions that actually work: highways and bridges.

Gov. McDonnell is a key player in forcing that, but Sen. Mark Warner is the real heavy-hitter needed to get fellow Democrats on board.

Warner should extend a high-profile invitation to Gov. Martin O'Malley, and transportation officials, to join Virginia in such a series of meetings.  The senator has already announced his support for a new crossing.  Warner is not one who can be ignored, as he is highly respected nationally, and just happens to have deep pockets and 2016 aspirations.  Getting the Outer Beltway done would improve Warner's and O'Malley's presidential resumés.  It's hard to argue against jobs and the tax revenue they generate.

The sun rises every day. 2+2=4. And yes, Virginia, we need an Outer Beltway.

No study necessary.

STUDY:

MARYLAND'S PROPOSED

OFFSHORE WIND FARM

VULNERABLE TO

HURRICANES

Maryland media missed an important study on offshore wind farms and hurricanes released this week.

The study - by engineers at Pittsburgh's Carnegie Mellon University - posits that offshore turbines, like those proposed to be built off the coast of Ocean City, are vulnerable to hurricanes of Category 3 and higher.

Computer simulations showed that high, sustained winds would tear off the massive turbine blades, and send them spinning through the air like massive shuriken. The towers supporting the propellers would be damaged and potentially collapse.

Ocean City lies between two of the "riskiest" areas to build offshore wind farms, according to the report - Atlantic City and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

I cannot recall state officials discussing the issue of hurricanes in public debates about the turbines. So I'm surprised that local and state media have not pursued this story.

Skeptics have already noted the threat to wildlife posed by the turbines, as well as the incredibly-inefficient power they generate.

I have opposed them for those reasons, and for the fact that - until these towers are built - the offshore view from Ocean City is the same today as it was when Native Americans ruled the land. Also, wind power creates fewer jobs than it destroys in fossil fuel industries (however, the effect is naturally-limited by the fact that wind can only create a small amount of electricity).

Finally, the sheer inefficiency of wind is a clue that it is not the energy source of the future. That source, I believe, has yet to be discovered.

Money going to wind power would be better spent on the search for that new energy, and on NASA. If America doesn't get to the vast resources surely available on other moons and planets, China and Russia will be glad to help themselves.

Just as we should not spend tax money on biofuels that raise the price of food on the world's poorest inhabitants, we should not jump to spend scarce revenue on power sources simply because they are the only ones immediately available.

The fuel of the future will be highly efficient, potentially infinite, and have little impact on the environment and the cost of living.

Why do we want to postpone the future for empty "achievements" today?

OUTER BELTWAY

STUDY ADVANCES

IN

VIRGINIA HOUSE

Virginia House Bill HJR-131 has been approved by the House Rules Studies Subcommittee. The bill, sponsored by Del. J. Randall Minchew (R-District 10), mandates a Virginia Department of Transportation study of a new Potomac River crossing into Montgomery County. It would also explore a request for inclusion of Route 28 as part of the federal interstate system.

The bill now goes to the full House Rules Committee.

One small step for man; one giant leap for DC area drivers.