HOLIDAY TRAVEL

TRENDS ARE

PREMONITION OF

THE FUTURE OF

TRANSPORTATION

Auto and Rail Travel Up;

Flights Hit 7-Year Low

12 Days of Christmas on Robert Dyer @ Bethesda Row

According to yesterday's USA Today, the projected number of Americans flying to holiday destinations this weekend will be the lowest in 7 years. But auto travel is expected to rise 2.1%. Amtrak experienced a surge in ridership over the Thanksgiving weekend, and has already set a new yearly record of 30.2 million riders.

Don't expect airlines to shut down next year. But the trends discussed in the article continue to follow my personal predictions of the future of travel.

In my opinion, within the next few decades, we will have dramatic change in travel modes. Air travel will decline substantially, and be primarily used by wealthier and/or business travelers for long-range trips.

This will be the result of two developments: the demise of the discount airline, and advances in rail and car travel.

While discounts are still available from travel websites, and there are many deals to be had on air travel, the bargain airlines increasingly are charging fares out of line with their bare bones in-flight amenities.

Eventually, this will shift the advantage to premium airlines using aircraft like the new Dreamliner.

Where will travelers turn?

For trips 400 miles or less, high-speed rail will be very competitive with airlines. Even today, there is no comparison between the experience aboard Amtrak's Acela vs. coach aboard XYZ budget airline. Imagine if the Amtrak fare were comparable with the airfare, and high-speed rail provided a Washington - New York City travel time of 2 hours. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out which one most would choose. Expect limited corridors in the Northeast, California, California-Las Vegas, and Florida to be popular - and one day profitable.

Finally, in the post-9/11 era, the car is poised to become the ultimate public transportation of last resort. No security pat-downs, x-rays, biological/chemical/nuclear attack threats, etc. are of daily concern to the automobile driver.

Furthermore, the self-driving car will become a reality within the next 2-3 decades. Google has already proven that the raw technology exists today. Some of it is already in expensive cars. As the technology is refined, Big Brother's desire to keep tabs on you and your car will only increase the urgency for manufacturers to offer passive, automated driving features.

Automated highways many more decades away. The better approach is voluntary, optional use of these systems by drivers. There is no need for "car traffic controllers" because the technology allows the computer driver to detect everything in immediate range, just as a human would. Also, automation on a car-by-car basis allows these systems to go into use sooner, because it would not require everyone to buy such vehicles. The computer driver will simply "avoid" active human drivers on the road. If one could no longer enjoy driving high-performance vehicles on the open road at all, what would car designs and horsepower numbers become? Awfully boring!

But enough about the World of Tomorrow...

What is it about the great American highway and the American love for automobiles that no gas price or government overreach has yet been able to end?

I thought the article summed it up quite well:

[T]ravelers...say they prefer the freedom of driving - picking their departure times and packing what they'd like.

I remember reading an old 1970s speech by Ronald Reagan where he talked about the freedom of setting your own timetable.

My presents are all wrapped and packed in my trunk and I don't need to worry about carry-on or checked baggage requirements...I wish the drive were a bit faster...all the more time to listen to Christmas music.

-Kristin Beat in USA Today

What could change the transportation future I've predicted here?

Airlines could cut fares. They could provide more comfortable seats for the unwashed masses. How about actually offering a hot meal like the old days? I'm not picky. I thought the old meals were pretty good.

Also, high-speed rail could be cancelled. Or the trains could be priced too high.

There's a lot to speculate about. Neither I nor anyone else can claim to have the answers. What do you think the future of transportation is? The only sure thing is that it's a fascinating topic.