THE

OUTER BELTWAY:

THE [GREAT] [FANTASTIC]

TRANSPORTATION IDEA

THAT WON'T

GO AWAY

David Alpert of the blog, Greater Greater Washington http://greatergreaterwashington.org had an editorial in yesterday's Washington Post entitled, "The Outer Beltway: The bad transportation idea that won't go away."

I fundamentally disagree.

The 60-year old Outer Beltway was not only a great idea, but it was a responsible one, as well. So were the many other highways that were planned, only to be canceled or delayed by politicians. Planners 5 or 6 decades ago recognized the tremendous growth that was coming, and laid out a functioning blueprint to handle the resulting transportation demands. It included a complete highway network for the Washington, D.C. region, and - importantly - a rapid transit network to go with it.

Now, before I argue in favor of the Outer Beltway, let me first mention - for those who might not be regular readers of this blog - that I am a huge supporter of mass transit, Amtrak, high-speed rail, streetcars, etc. I am hardly an apologist for developers, as I have been one of the foremost critics of out-of-control development in Montgomery County. And while I am glad to debate anyone on why Responsible Growth is a better choice than "Smart Growth," I do think it is a logical idea to build skyscrapers adjacent to Metro in established urban districts like Bethesda. But you have to have the infrastructure in place, or build it concurrently.

Some of Alpert's arguments against the Outer Beltway, which today would begin with an extension of I-370 into Northern Virginia, are old perennials such as the questionable theory of "induced demand."

In the DC area, "induced demand" can fairly be described as an urban legend.

Without getting into the whole back story of the sabotage of our planned freeway system, let me give you some specific facts as to why "induced demand" has little to do with the jams on I-270 Alpert referenced.

First of all, you have to be skeptical of "induced demand" theory in general. It requires you to believe that great numbers of automobiles and drivers materialize from the morning rush hour mists. They weren't there yesterday, or last year. But, ID supporters argue, because you built that road, they came to drive on it.

I've never seen a credible data stream on "induced demand." What are the reference points and measurements being taken? The bottom line is that we all can agree that phantom cars don't just appear out of thin air.

So let's take apart the 270 story, shall we?

Okay, it was known some 50 years ago that rural Rockville, Gaithersburg, Germantown, Clarksburg, Damascus and Frederick would experience explosive growth. To facilitate this, Route 240 was replaced in segments by I-70S, later known as I-270.

But - and this is huge - 270 wasn't alone on the map. It was one piece to be complemented by several other roadways. The most relevant of these were the Rockville Freeway (itself once planned as the Outer Beltway) or Rockville Facility, which was to connect Falls Road on one end to the Outer Beltway at the other near Indian Spring Country Club; M-83 (Midcounty Highway Extended) which was to feed 270 traffic headed for Germantown, Clarksburg and Damascus via Watkins Mill Road Extended west and then north; and the North Central Freeway and Northern Parkway. Finally, the Capital Beltway (which could never be built today) was never designed to carry I-95. I-95 was to pass through the District via Fort Totten and the B&O Railroad corridor by Catholic University and connect to today's piece of I-395 into Virginia.

You had planned growth, and a road network to handle that. The growth went ahead, as it always does in Montgomery County. But a funny thing happened along the way.

A strange partnership of activists, environmentalists, developers and politicians proceeded to tear up the master plan.

This affected the capacity of 270 severely.

In fact, 270 is called 270 because the original I-70S was chopped in half. The lower section of I-70S - the Northwest Expressway - was completely scrapped. So 270 lost its direct route into and out of the District, where it would have connected to a similarly-cancelled freeway system.

The North-Central Freeway and Northern Parkway were cancelled.

M-83 has been postponed through today, but the county is currently doing another study on it, to be published in 2012.

I-95 through DC was cancelled, and all of that Eastern seaboard tourist and truck traffic was dumped onto our Beltway. This led to the aforementioned urban myth that "the Beltway was jammed as soon as they built it!" A.k.a., "induced demand."

And, of course, the Outer Beltway was scrapped.

This created the following scenarios:

Workers who live in Frederick or Clarksburg have to take jammed local roads out of the District to access I-270.

Those who live above Bethesda but travel into Northern Virginia for work are forced to use the American Legion bridge.

Cars that would have exited at the Rockville Freeway (currently Montrose Road), I-370 (Outer Beltway), and M-83/Watkins Mill Extended [this interchange is actually going to be built, only the M-83 part is in question] to points east and north of the Beltway are forced to remain on 270.

I-95 traffic, and the use of Georgia Avenue instead of the North Central Freeway/Northern Parkway to points north of Silver Spring, cause huge delays between Northern Virginia and Georgia Avenue.

All of this together created the classic spots around the 270 spur and northward during the evening rush hour.

Meanwhile, all the development went forward - and then some!

This was utterly irresponsible policy by county politicians, but hardly rare in our region.

So, yes, they widened 270 - and think of how bad it would be if they hadn't - but Clarksburg grew 800% in the time since. Not a misprint - 800%.

And the lovely Loudoun County, which provides the "crops for our tables," according to Alpert, grew 80% in the last 10 years. Those weren't barns that were built, either.

Clearly, a new Potomac River crossing is desperately needed. As are the Rockville Freeway and M-83. The county claims it can find $2.5 billion (again, not a misprint) in the sofa cushions for a massive BRT system (that, in my opinion, should be scaled back to corridors underserved by rapid transit). Meanwhile, the Rockville Freeway could be built between the Montrose Parkway and the ICC for under $1 billion, and serve many more commuters daily than a countywide BRT system.

(Don't say I'm against all BRT without reading my article about that first)

Think about how someone who lives in Damascus but works on Capitol Hill might have used the North Central Freeway, and then the Northern Parkway to get to that rural area. Now they have to take 270, 355 or New Hampshire Avenue. With 270 being the lesser of all evils... who can wonder why 270 is such a mess?

Alpert also keeps throwing out the term, "sprawl," yet Montgomery County is currently creating sprawl development in Science City - a city literally being created in the country - and White Flint, and calling it "Smart Growth."

I concur with Alpert on the need for more transit and less restriction of auto traffic between subdivisions. And I think Bethesda Row is the lone example of transit-oriented living that has demonstrably worked in the county. (Yet, without the Northwest Expressway, our downtown streets are jammed every rush hour.)

But he says "desires have changed dramatically since the Outer Beltway was proposed." And that people want to live in urban areas with transit. Many people do. But not a majority. Most can't afford it, and the new luxury condos being built "near work and transit" are out of their price range.

In fact, many are leaving urbanizing Montgomery County for the traditional suburbs popping up in Loudoun - to the tune of 80% growth.

And if you didn't notice, that happened already - without the Outer Beltway.

Shouldn't we let the plain facts inform us?

The Outer Beltway is a critical piece of infrastructure missing from our transportation system. Much like the Rockville Freeway and M-83, we need to build it now.

And that's just to handle our existing growth.

If you think it's bad now, wait until Damascus triples in size over the next 10-15 years, and Science City builds out.

The Outer Beltway is a great idea.