WILL HURRICANE SANDY HIT MARYLAND, DC AREA? LATEST MODEL SAYS YES! EAST COAST FRANKENSTORM

BETHESDA STORM CENTER

SANDY UPDATE

The historically-most-accurate Euro model of Hurrricane Sandy is now predicting an almost-certain East Coast landfall by the storm, between Monday and Tuesday.  Our area is within the red zone that stretches from Norfolk, VA to Nova Scotia.  We are almost sure to be hit by Sandy, either directly or in passing.

Remember the three possible scenarios I mentioned yesterday, and how we'd have to wait until certain atmospheric trends played out, to know which track it would take?

Those have been whittled down to one by the latest Euro model.  What changed?  In addition to the jet stream staying too far west, a dominating clockwise current northeast of the U.S. is likely to hurl Sandy westward, and right into the Eastern seaboard.

Barring the chance that Sandy slips eastward before hitting that northeast high pressure system, we are now almost certainly in for a wild and wooly Monday.  Our worst case scenario would be Sandy making landfall between Norfolk and Delaware.  Aside from the danger of Sandy actually coming up the Chesapeake Bay, those located west, north and northwest of the landfall point will be the hardest hit.  And that would include the DC area.

In such a scenario, this could be a historic Mid-Atlantic storm.  Even if that doesn't happen, this pre-Halloween Frankenstorm will still cause power outages, falling trees, flooding and disruption of rail and air transportation in the Northeast Corridor.  Adding to flooding concerns, we will have a Full Moon when Sandy makes landfall.  Tides will already be higher as a result.  Forecasts call for 6" of rainfall; currently, Sandy is producing rainfall of 12-20" in the Carribean.

Continue to monitor the hurricane reports, as the final turn eastward by Sandy as it moves up the coast is the one thing the Euro model hasn't - and can't - show in advance.

One other point on flooding:  If you are in a residential neighborhood, make sure the gutters along your street are free of leaves.  Leaf collection is a couple of weeks off; leaf piles in the gutter can cause streets to flood by slowing and preventing normal function by stormwater systems.

Bottom line:  Frankenstorm may deliver pre-Halloween screams.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Here's the latest on Sandy:

LOCATION:  485 miles SSE of Charleston, SC

WINDS:  80 MPH

MOVING:  NW at 13 MPH

Latest Developments:

+HURRICANE WATCH FOR NW BAHAMAS

+TROPICAL STORM WATCH BETWEEN

SAVANNAH RIVER AND

OREGON INLET, NC