MONTGOMERY COUNTY BRT WOULD TAKE 13-21% OF ITS RIDERS FROM METRO ALONG 355, PLANNER SAYS

Montgomery County Planning Department Master Planner Larry Cole told the Rockville Planning Commission last night that a bus rapid transit line along MD Route 355 would take "13-21%" of its ridership from Metro.

Why is this important?

For two reasons. First, it highlights the duplication of existing subway service by BRT. In fact, Commissioner David Hill questioned Cole on that very point at last night's briefing at Rockville City Hall.

Secondly, it confirms my argument from the beginning of this sham of a process regarding BRT:  the duplicative service will attract mostly those who already use transit. In the process, it will slash the already insufficient revenue of the Metro system.

Where will that shortfall be recovered from? From you and I, the taxpayers. And again from you and I, in the form of future Metro fare increases.

It begs the question again - if the county has a magic $5 billion in extra revenue to pay for the BRT system, wouldn't that money be better spent on projects that will actually reduce congestion? These would include M-83 Midcounty Highway Extended, the Rockville Freeway, a new Potomac River bridge, expanded MARC service, the Purple Line and an extension of Metro to Gaithersburg and Germantown.

In contrast to those projects, the ridership, density and demand numbers for BRT simply don't add up.  With no solid evidence that drivers will "get out of their cars," it's safe to assume Metro ridership will be the target audience for the Emperor's New Bus, thereby providing no congestion relief.

What could ultimately end up happening, is a small BRT ridership, taken in even greater numbers from Metro than Cole's projections suggest, riding $5 billion buses along a now even-more-congested Route 355. And Metro in even worse financial straits than ever.

Rockville Planning Commissioners were understandably skeptical of Cole's presentation.

Commissioner Jack Leiderman asked Cole if he was attempting to "punish" drivers by removing 2 car lanes from 355 for BRT. Cole arrogantly responded that drivers "don't own" those lanes.

Mr. Cole, those of us who live in Maryland not only own those lanes, but we paid for their construction, and continue to pay for their maintenance.

Cole made the mistake of comparing the seizure of 2 lanes for BRT to HOV Lanes on I-270. Anyone who actually drives on 270 knows that the HOV idea was a complete failure, and does continue only as a punishment for drivers. The HOV lane is that one which you turn to the left and see hardly anybody in, while you're crawling or at a complete stop on 270. Not only is traffic still jammed, but you're moving even slower, thanks to the loss of 25% of capacity in the Express lanes.  And during rush hour, many HOV drivers are using the lane illegally.

Cole wasn't done making odd comparisons.

When a skeptical Commissioner Dion Trahan quizzed Cole as to how losing already-jammed lanes would reduce gridlock, Cole referred to Ballston in Arlington.

Cole repeated a popular urban myth among "smart" growth advocates, that traffic on Wilson Boulevard in Ballston and Clarendon has actually decreased, despite massive, dense redevelopment.

This is an apples to oranges comparison, and complete bunk. First, the "less traffic" argument is hardly accurate as it relates to Arlington.

But, more importantly, there is no comparison whatsoever between Wilson Boulevard and 355.

The daily traffic count on Wilson is around 15,000 vehicles.

The daily traffic count on Rockville Pike is 43,000 to 46,000 cars.

Wilson is a lower-capacity road than 355.

And Wilson is not an arterial road of the scope of 355.  355 carries heavy traffic from Washington, Frederick, Carroll and Montgomery counties along a corridor that has only one alternative, 270.

In contrast, drivers traveling west-east into Washington through Arlington have many parallel routes to choose from.  Rockville Pike is not Wilson Boulevard, and you can't make it so just to satisfy ideology or developers.

Speaking of which, Cole seems to favor both. Cole's recent suggestion to kill the grade-separated Montrose Parkway certainly revealed an anti-highway, pro-developer bias. That's not a good starting point for a planning department that is supposed to ensure adequate mobility of citizens via a multimodal transportation system.

But there's more ideological dreaming, "behavior-modification" scheming, and development cheerleading going on than planning in Cole's department.

Asked by the commission's chair, Jerry Callistein, why no planning has been done for BRT parking, environmental studies, BRT-Metro transfers, BRT vehicle storage, etc., Cole essentially responded that the dog ate his homework. It's hard enough to get the BRT plan passed without worrying about those little details, Cole suggested.

Unsatisfactory answers were the rule in a presentation on an unsatisfactory boondoggle of a BRT proposal.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY BRT TASK FORCE REDEFINES "EVERYONE"

The latest talking point from the less than 20 people ramming a Bus Rapid Transit boondoggle through the Montgomery County "process," is that "everyone" will benefit.

Not just the 10% of residents who might actually ride BRT.

But the 85% who will be stuck in traffic, in longer commutes, after BRT takes existing traffic lanes away from cars along the county's busiest highways.

They will "benefit."

Bethesda residents - who won't even be able to commute via BRT, since the line dead ends in Bethesda - who pay $1000+ a year in new BRT taxes if it passes?  Yep, they'll "benefit," too.

After all, as task force chair Mark Winston said, "it's not an express bus...it's not Metro, it's not light rail, it's not a bus...It is a new animal."

He forgot to add that it cures the common cold, and makes a darn good cup of coffee, to boot.

No word if Kevin Trudeau will be named BRT spokesman for the county.

DEBUNKING ROBERT MCCARTNEY'S MONTGOMERY COUNTY BRT PROPAGANDA

The less than 20 Montgomery County officials ramming through a $2 billion boondoggle known as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) are desperately trying to recover from last week's devastating critique by their own master planner, Larry Cole.

Enter Washington Post columnist Robert McCartney.  In yesterday's Metro section, McCartney gave getting the BRT narrative back on track the old college try.

Suffice it to say, McCartney really, really likes the Emperor's new clothes.  And he needs to educate the masses, who just aren't smart enough to get these things.

How biased is McCartney's piece?  Check out this word cloud of McCartney's descriptions of the BRT plan:

ambitious, big idea, jazzy (!!), 

rare merit,

 bold, innovative, 

make a difference on a large scale, 

visionary, worthy

Wow.  OK.  Whatever happened to the phrase, "critical thinking" or "journalistic skepticism?"

McCartney had bought in to a plan that is nothing more than pie in the sky, by and by.  He doesn't need supporting data.  And gosh, that's good, because the county council and transit task force sure ain't providing any!

Now let's just take McCartney's piece apart, fiction by fiction:

He tries to float a general theme that there are no beneficial transportation projects that could be built - until these super geniuses, and all-around swell folks, invented BRT.

"Everybody talks about Washington traffic, but nobody does anything about it.  Despite having the region's second-longest commuting time, Montgomery has no big-ticket transportation project underway."

This is complete hogwash.

The county council and planners have been well aware for decades of our unbuilt master plan highways.  They have stalled construction of Midcounty Highway Extended [M-83], and the Outer Beltway for decades.  And they cancelled the Rockville Freeway, Northwest Freeway, North Central Freeway and Northern Parkway - just to name a few.

In 2010, Councilmember George Leventhal said, "the Rockville Freeway is dead, the M-83 will not be built in my lifetime."

Mr. McCartney, Leventhal referred by name to just 2 of many "big-ticket transportation projects" that would "make a difference on a large scale."

He, and other councilmembers, have failed to execute the known solutions to gridlock.

So, to say BRT is "all we got," is not fooling anyone.

Second, McCartney boasts that BRT "would actually relieve some of the region's chronic congestion."

Again, patently false.  In fact, by taking away existing traffic lanes, and reprogramming traffic signals, BRT will actually worsen congestion.

What will make the 85% who drive take BRT, Mr. McCartney?

His column didn't answer.  It's not speed, because it takes BRT 50 minutes to go 15 miles.  It's not convenience, because 95% of residents don't live on the major highways where BRT will run.

Pray tell, Mr. McCartney, what does make a person voluntarily agree to double their commuting time, by trading car for BRT?  Making it mandatory, like China?

Tell us, because the BRT folks so far cannot.

McCartney's suggestion that Montgomery is falling behind Fairfax County because it doesn't have BRT is ludicrous.   Have you checked the number of jobs created in both counties over the last 10 years, or 6 months?  The numbers are staggering, and an indictment of the council's failure to do anything but spend money.

Worst of all, McCartney lowballs the tax you'll be charged, which for Bethesda residents will be $1000 or more per year for single family homes, and upscale condos.

Don't "applaud the county" just yet, Mr. McCartney.  Failed policies and outlandish spending and taxes are their specialty.  BRT is just the latest scheme.

Do your homework, and get back to your readers with fact-based, skeptical, critical thoughts on BRT, a political vanity project run wild.

COUNTY PLANNER: "PUBLIC BEARS ALL OF THAT COST" FOR BUSES "NO ONE IS GOING TO USE" WITH BRT PLAN

The week had been going so well for the less than 20 supporters of the Montgomery County BRT Rapid Transit Vehicle (RTV) plan.

Just this Wednesday, a Gazette column ostensibly dedicated to the frustrations of driving in Montgomery County, Bumper to Bumper, was dedicated to BRT supporters' noble quest for "an alternative."

While revealing how ponderous mass transit can be, and not identifying the specific routes he took - so readers could double check if he really took the fastest bus and subway routes - the author ultimately did not explain how BRT would help him.  No planned route would travel directly from Takoma Park to Germantown.  And it's no wonder he could not provide specific time savings.  As I proved here on this blog, BRT can be as slow or slower than current bus or car options.  Would you pay $1000+ a year in new taxes for that?

How refreshing, then, to discover the first remotely objective mainstream media report on BRT, in today's Washington Examiner.

Rachel Baye's article quotes Montgomery County Master Planner Larry Cole as saying the population density is insufficient to support BRT, and won't be dense enough for at least another 30 years.

As I have been pleading with county residents to understand on this blog for months, Cole says the proposed system and financing is such that "the public bears all of that cost."

And that $2 billion question I've been asking:  "Where is the evidence we'll have the ridership?"

Cole's remarks support my skeptical position:  "You don't want to build something no one is going to use," Cole warned.

Wow.  Does that sound optimistic to you?

Scrambling to defend the pet project of less than 20 county officials, most unelected by the public, Councilmember Marc Elrich only further weakened their straw-grasping case.

Elrich referred to commutes from Glenmont to the west of the county as a major problem.  "This is about moving the people from where they live to where they work."

Unfortunately, only a small minority of commuters are heading to Rockville or Gaithersburg during rush hour.

And even for those commuters, better and cheaper options than BRT exist.  They include current automobile and bus routes, in some cases, and the ICC.

The unbuilt Rockville Freeway would be the best option for Glenmont residents.  For well under $1 billion in construction cost, the Rockville Freeway would carry Glenmont drivers and bus riders at 55 MPH from the Georgia Avenue interchange to Veirs Mill Road and 355.  At a fraction of the cost, the Rockville Freeway would move more commuters per day than the entire BRT system!

Elrich's second example was Connecticut Avenue between East-West Highway and the Beltway.  First of all, any Connecticut Avenue driver can tell you the backups go way further north than that.

But here's the real reason we have backups there:  Unbuilt highways.

The Rockville Freeway, Northwest Freeway, North Central Freeway and Northern Parkway were all planned decades ago to prevent just the gridlock we now have along the 355 and 189 corridors.

Not to mention that county planners warned politicians during the 70s that the Rockville Freeway and a widened Metropolitan Avenue connection to the North Central Freeway were required to support just the growth they were then approving in the Kensington area.

What we need is not a BRT boondoggle, but to build our master plan highways.

Now let's find out if Cole is forced to "walk back" his absolutely devastating, honest and frank comments on Montgomery County BRT.  Very inconvenient truth, at a critical time.