MOCO'S MILLENNIAL PROBLEM: BLAME COUNTY'S WEAK JOB GROWTH, SAYS DEVELOPER OF BETHESDA CONDOS

One of the big puzzles (for some) in Montgomery County is, how can more millennials be attracted to live and work here? Two panelists at Bisnow's Montgomery County Boom! event last week at the Marriott North Bethesda Conference Center managed to dodge the popular myths, and hit the nail on the head.

Stephen Alfandre of Toll Brothers City Living, which is currently building the Hampden Row luxury condos in downtown Bethesda, got it right. Alfandre argued "poor job growth in Montgomery is holding [attraction of millennials] back," according to Bisnow. His examples of locations where efforts have been more successful - Arlington County and DC's 14th Street - both share one thing in common: proximity to high-wage government, defense and government contracting jobs. If Montgomery County can add more of those type of jobs, it will provide the same draw for young professionals.

Rich Jordan of The JBG Companies identified another major draw - affordable housing. Although, one could argue, if there were enough new high-wage jobs, that would increase the spending power of millennials for housing. If you look where the studies show millennials are currently located in downtown Bethesda, they are clustered most in the Battery Lane and Bradley Boulevard corridors. With demolitions of several older apartment buildings already approved for Battery, that street will have a net loss in affordable units. We're hearing more and more rumors about redevelopment (a.k.a. demolition of existing housing) in the Bradley area, as well. Those ideas will have to be reversed, if Montgomery really is serious about retaining the millennials it has now, much less attracting new ones.

I give both of these guys credit for cutting through the nightlife/"vibrant places" baloney. Millennials vacation and party in Las Vegas, but they sure as heck aren't moving there like they are to DC, Rosslyn, Pentagon City, Clarendon, etc. to start their professional careers.

OFFENSIVE COMMENTS, ORWELLIAN DOUBLESPEAK ON BETHESDA PLANNING RADIO

Yesterday there was an interesting discussion of the Bethesda Downtown Plan on the Kojo Nnamdi Show, and you can read an entire transcript here.

But I wanted to respond to a couple of misleading statements made during the broadcast by Washington Post columnist Roger Lewis, and Montgomery County Planning Director Gwen Wright.

I found Roger Lewis' comments offensive and troubling. Regarding "urbanization" (which is nonsensical, because downtown Bethesda is thoroughly urban already! We're not "urbanizing" Bethesda - we already did that), Lewis made the following statement:

Roger Lewis: "I think loading the dice against urbanism is usually motivated by either resistance to change, as we talk about all the time, or concern that I'm not going to find a parking space and I'm going to sit through four cycles of this signal at this intersection.

"I mean, I think traffic congestion -- I think a lot of what we hear are essentially code words, if you will, for what people directly experience and perceive and worry about urbanism, which is both -- well, it's traffic congestion. It's also the arrival of people who maybe are different. I mean there's a sociological dimension to this. I mean, that's my interpretation. Whenever I hear, if you will, the nimbi (sic) argument, it's almost always based on that."

This is complete hogwash. Along with Planning Director Gwen Wright's assertions that affordable housing will be magically-increased in the Bethesda Downtown Plan, and that millennials will be able to afford Bethesda, this was a truly 1984-esque moment in yesterday's broadcast. What is happening now, and unless there is a policy change that accompanies the passage of the new downtown plan, is the exact opposite.

We just witnessed - especially readers of this blog - the demolition of The Hampden apartments on Hampden Lane. Those are being replaced by The Lauren, an ultra-luxury condo building with units "from the several millions." The end result is a net loss of affordable units on that site (not to mention several mature trees).

Battery Lane will soon have several demolitions, again with a net loss of affordable units. The same is coming for a building on MacArthur Boulevard, and - potentially - along Bradley Boulevard.

All of those threatened buildings had, or have, something in common. They were, and are, among the last buildings that an actual millennial could afford to rent in.

Much as in similar demolitions across the county, such as in Wheaton, Glenmont and at Halpine View, they will be replaced with luxury housing, not equal or greater racial and economic diversity. The "arrival of people" resulting from this will be a group very much like the one that dominates Bethesda today - rich, white people. Roger Lewis himself admitted long ago that the DC area building boom is not going to generate the adequate amount of affordable housing it promised. Instead, we are getting luxury buildings, with a handful of MPDUs in each. At the same time, we are demolishing more affordable units than we are building.

Res ipsa loquitur. But don't come on the radio and mislead people about affordable housing. And absolutely don't come on and accuse the people trying to maintain diversity and affordable housing in Montgomery County of using "code words," or having a fear of people who are "different." That is Orwellian doublespeak at its worst (or, best?). Mr. Lewis should be embarrassed about that, given his previous admission that the building boom indeed will not provide the affordable housing he claims Bethesda fears.

THE HAMPDEN APARTMENTS DEMOLITION UPDATE (PHOTOS)

Demolition crews continue to obliterate The Hampden apartments on Hampden Lane at Woodmont Avenue, in downtown Bethesda.

THE HAMPDEN DEMOLITION UPDATE (PHOTOS)

Demolition of The Hampden, one of the last affordable apartment buildings in downtown Bethesda, continues on Hampden Lane. The machinery is making short work of this solid, venerable brick building, as you can see in the photos. Some of the green awnings still in place were drooping over the windows. The Hampden is being obliterated to make room for The Lauren, with luxury condos "from the several millions." It's sad to see. Expect some lane closures at times in the area, due to the dump trucks that need to line up to haul the debris away.

DEMOLITION PREP UNDERWAY AT THE HAMPDEN APTS. IN BETHESDA (PHOTOS)

Preparations for demolition are getting underway at the future site of The Lauren ultra-luxury condos in downtown Bethesda. Multiple buildings on Hampden Lane, Woodmont Avenue and Montgomery Lane are going to be torn down to make way for condos "from the several millions." The most significant tear-down will be that of the affordable garden apartment complex known as The Hampden, on Hampden Lane.

This tear down will result in a net loss of affordable units in downtown Bethesda.

Former entrance to
The Hampden apartments

There goes the lawn

One of the last affordable buildings
in downtown Bethesda

Trees, white picket fence...
this can't be allowed to stand!
Anybody heard a peep about
the deforestation clearcut of
The Green Mile along
Wisconsin Avenue yet?

This house is going, too

Shining a light on the
lost affordable housing
corridor of Arlington Road
in downtown Bethesda

Green thumb

All the paperwork is
in order

Welcome, Mr. Bulldozer,
come right on in

That's the rear of The Hampden
in the background

"OFFENSIVE" BETHESDA LUXURY CONDO SIGNS IGNITE AFFORDABLE HOUSING DEBATE (PHOTOS)

Several times recently, I've been walking past The Hampden apartments, at Hampden Lane and Woodmont Avenue, and seen people aiming cell phone cameras toward the building.

They're not house hunters. They're not investors. They're snapping photos of large signs that foretell doom for The Hampden, and sharing them online.

The signs are touting The Lauren, which may eventually be the most exclusive address in downtown Bethesda. As part of an edgy, frank marketing push towards the few who can actually afford condos starting in "the several millions," the signs have succeeded in getting attention. But it hasn't been all the right kind.

"Today...in Bethesda this huge obnoxious sign caught my eye, along with some other people who were taking pictures of it as well," a Robert Dyer @ Bethesda Row reader (who asked to remain anonymous) emailed me.  "They all agreed it was distasteful, couldn't they print 'High Luxury' instead of 'several millions?'  I hope I'm not the only one who finds this offensive."

"I understand that development is important in our area. I just dont agree that it needs to become such a high end place on the market. I feel like Bethesda is growing, and I welcome that, but I feel the sign was in poor taste. I understand that they wanted to stand out with their signage but they may be pushing it a bit too far."

So one issue is the marketing message itself.

For me, as I noted in the original article on The Lauren (linked above), the concern is the net loss of affordable units with this project. If there were 12 affordable units in The Lauren, and current tenants of the relatively-affordable Hampden had first dibs on them, I would probably be able to support the project. But, the fact is, there aren't, and those current residents are going to be out on the street.

One of my followers on Twitter has similar concerns. @Casielee tweeted a link to my original Lauren piece yesterday, and added, "Wow. How long until you drive my middle class out of Bethesda, Bethesda? So sad."

The lower and middle classes are, without a doubt, the big losers in the countywide "smart" growth developalooza.

Poor residents are about to get tossed out in Wheaton, Silver Spring and Glenmont, to make way for new apartments they can't afford.

Two other sites in downtown Bethesda are about to suffer the same fate. Affordable housing for young people and seniors on Battery Lane is going to be demolished. And a small apartment building at the corner of Sangamore Road and MacArthur Boulevard is facing the wrecking ball, as well.

Developers are building like mad, but we've yet to see the "affordable housing" urbanization proponents have facetiously claimed was the raison d'etre for such development.

Not long after the signs got citizens talking about the affordable housing crisis in Bethesda, a leading advocate of urbanization and smart growth made a shocking admission.

Roger Lewis, a Washington Post columnist, architect and proponent of massive infill redevelopment (like The Lauren), suddenly acknowledged Saturday that the DC area building boom won't provide the promised affordable housing after all.

In a 180° turn from the unified message of developer-backed smart growth advocates, Lewis wrote:

"Future metropolitan Washington real estate growth will be substantial. In every municipal and county jurisdiction, plans for redevelopment of existing properties as well as new land development envision tens of thousands of housing units, mostly at high densities, and mostly unsubsidized.

"Yet low- and middle-income families will be unable to afford these new urban and suburban homes," Lewis concluded.

This is a frank admission of what I, and other responsible growth advocates in the county, have been saying for years.  And really, it's just acknowledging the reality all around us.

If even an advocate of demolishing affordable apartments and urbanizing the suburbs like Lewis can have an epiphany on affordable housing, isn't it time to reexamine our growth and affordable housing strategies in Montgomery County?

When even the proponents admit we're failing, it's time to face the facts: it's not working.

THE LAUREN ULTRA-LUXURY CONDOS TO REPLACE THE HAMPDEN APARTMENTS ON HAMPDEN LANE AT BETHESDA ROW (PHOTOS)

The Lauren, an ultra-luxury boutique condo building, could replace The Hampden apartments, a gravel parking lot, and two houses along Woodmont Avenue between Hampden Lane and Montgomery Lane.

A 7-story building with 22 large units, The Lauren aims to be downtown Bethesda's most exclusive address. Private elevator entrances, a Mr. Drummond-style rooftop terrace, and a 24-hour concierge are just a few of the amenities residents will enjoy.

An amendment to the existing site plan that would allow balconies has been submitted by prominent development attorney Jody Kline.

Although by no fault of the Lauren's developer, once again we witness not only the loss of existing affordable housing in downtown Bethesda, but the betrayal of decade-old promises by the county council.

Over ten years ago, the Arlington Road corridor was planned to have more affordable apartments. Ironically, it has ended up being home to - literally - the most expensive and exclusive residences in downtown Bethesda.

This is why I always say to ignore what Montgomery County councilmembers say, and pay attention to what they actually do.

They say they want young people to live in Bethesda.

But they're knocking down what little affordable housing is left. 

This is not as bad as the Battery Lane disaster. But it's worth doing the math, folks.

"Smart" growth advocates tell us overdevelopment is about creating affordable housing.

The Hampden currently contains 12 units with rents of $1100-1575.

The Lauren will house 15% MPDUs. With 22 units, that comes to 3 MPDUs by my calculation.

In total, then, this project represents a net loss of 9 affordable housing units in Bethesda.

Again, this is in no way the fault of the developer of The Lauren. It sounds like it's going to be a fabulous place to live, literally across the street from Bethesda Row.

The fault lies squarely with the planning and zoning decisions made by the county council - the buck stops there, at least in theory.

Here are some photos of what's there now, and some renderings of what The Lauren will look like: