Saturday, April 04, 2020

Montgomery County lags other jurisdictions in following Stay at Home orders, Google data shows

Use of parks increased
44% even as officials told
residents to stay home

Montgomery County has changed its behavior over a period of increasingly-strict Stay at Home measures designed to reduce the spread of coronavirus, but is behind Italy, Spain, France and even New York and Washington in its level of compliance, according to cellphone location data recorded by Google. The county saw sizable drops in retail shopping, recreation, grocery and pharmacy shopping, work and transit use. But use of Montgomery County parks increased by 44% over the February 16-March 29, 2020 period observed by Google. And county residents only spent 16% more time at home than they usually would, according to the data.

County residents' retail shopping and overall recreational activities dropped 51% over that same period, the biggest drop in any category of activity, by Google's cellphone-data foot traffic measurement. By contrast, Italy's retail and recreation foot traffic dropped 90%, France's dropped 88%, Washington, D.C.'s declined 64%, and New York City's by 62%.

We're shopping only 30% less at grocery stores and pharmacies, Google says. Italy's grocery and drugstore shopping dropped 85%, France's 72%, New York's by 32% and the District tied us at 30%.

Use of transit declined by 50% in Montgomery County, but by 87% in Italy, 87% in France, 68% in the District, and 68% in New York. That's notable, since New York's system was running far more service than WMATA.

Montgomery County workers spent 45% less time at their workplaces, Google reports. By contrast, Italians spent 63% less time at work, the French spent 56% less time, Washingtonians spent 47% less time, and New Yorkers spent 46% less time at their workplaces.

Where things get really out of hand is in the use of parks. Montgomery County's use of parks shot up 44% over these weeks, Google notes. That's a radically different trend compared to Italy, where use of parks plunged 90%. Use of parks dropped 82% in France, 47% in New York, and 41% in the District.

Are we spending more time at home? Many certainly are, but Google registers that Montgomery County residents only spent 16% more time at their homes than they usually would. Italians stayed home 24% more, the French 18% more, we tied New York at 16% more, and we beat the District, whose residents stayed home 14% more than usual.

The positive news is that the number of people going out for various reasons trended downward as the weeks went on. But it's interesting that by the end of March, people were starting to go out more again to use transit, to go to work, and to go to...parks. Perhaps Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan had access to this data, and it may have played a role in his decision to make the Stay at Home order mandatory on March 30.

However, our Stay at Home directives in the United States have been nowhere near as strict or as effective as those in China and Italy, for example. Montgomery County also has a large low-income population that doesn't have the luxury of being able to work from home. That applies to a good number of middle-class residents, as well. So raw data alone cannot tell the whole story, but it does provide an unbiased snapshot of resident activity.


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

You're allowed to take a walk in one of our parks so long as you maintain a safe distance.

Anonymous said...

As someone who votes Republican because it is generally the lesser of 2 bad choices, I have to say based on this misleading comparison and analysis, I would not bother voting if this type of simplistic authoritarian thinking was the only alternative to the Democrat party.