Wednesday, November 05, 2014

WHAT THE ELECTION RESULTS MEAN FOR TRANSPORTATION IN BETHESDA

The upset victory by (unofficial) Governor-elect Larry Hogan (R) last night, and voters' approval of a lesser-known Statewide Ballot Question, could mean a long-overdue focus on Montgomery County's unfinished highway system. Hogan's defeat of Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown means the challenger's promise to focus scarce transportation funds on road construction and improvements can now be realized in actual policy terms.

Should Hogan deliver on his promise, Bethesda could be a major beneficiary of state funding and support. Assuming Hogan would support the long-delayed new Potomac River crossing to the Dulles area, there would actually be someone on our side of the river to pick up the phone that's been ringing from Virginia's Department of Transportation for years. A seeming victory by incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia) leaves another high-profile bridge supporter in place, as well.

Given that 25% of traffic on the American Legion Bridge is traveling to, or from, the Dulles area, and the albatross that lack of direct access to Dulles Airport has been for economic development here, the compelling case for a new bridge could finally have a high-profile advocate in Hogan (should he choose to act on it).

The other big winner locally last night? The Town of Chevy Chase. Just 24 hours ago, the planned Purple Line light rail was considered by most as a done deal. State and county leaders vowed in recent weeks to hold a groundbreaking on the project next year. Yet, when the sun rose this morning, the Purple Line's future is in doubt. Hogan does not support it, and it's hard to imagine his administration getting on board. Chevy Chase residents and Capital Crescent Trail supporters who have been fighting the transit project have to feel a transfusion of confidence. This thing really might not happen at this point, an unimaginable outcome until now. At a minimum, it's going to be a much heavier lift for the County Council and General Assembly, both of which overwhelmingly support the Purple Line.

Money intended for light rail, and the severely-watered-down Corridor Cities Transitway bus project upcounty, could now be available for the Montrose Parkway extension, grade-separation of failing intersections, and other road projects, widening, and improvements. Greater capacity on roads would also translate into faster Metrobus and Ride On service.

Hopefully 8-car trains for the Metro Red Line will still be a priority, as that is essential to handle existing and planned development in downtown Bethesda and beyond. It would also help if Hogan would take a tougher approach than the previous administration to forcing leadership and operational changes at Metro. How Richard Sarles lasted so long - and got a raise, to boot - presiding over a system that (in practical terms) shuts down every weekend remains one of the great puzzles of humankind.

Speaking of money, Maryland voters delivered a clear message to politicians in Annapolis last night - hands-off our transportation tax dollars. Abuse of Maryland's Transportation Trust Fund is a lot harder this morning, as (at current count) 81.6% of statewide voters said elected officials should not be able to divert those funds to non-transportation uses, or budget-"balancing" chicanery.

A governor supporting projects that move the vast majority of commuters - and a new legal restraint on misuse of the dollars needed for those projects - mean Bethesda residents could be mildly optimistic about finally getting something done about our failing transportation system.

70 comments:

Steve D. said...

Après moi, le déluge

Anonymous said...

Except Bethesda voters really didn't vote for Hogan (or you, to be honest).

Anonymous said...

The commentators on MyMCMedia last night said Hogan's election meant the Purple Line is dead. Is that true?

What a difference 24 hours makes.


Anonymous said...

Why should Montgomery County make it easier to get to the Dulles area? Why should we subsidize our residents' commutes to Virginia?

Anonymous said...

Well if companies decide montgomery county is a viable option because of Dulles access, they might move here.

Anonymous said...

Ask anyone who commutes from MoCo over the American Legion Bridge why we need another river crossing or some other solution.

Are you saying MoCo residents must work in the county? I guess we should cut off the Red Line at Friendship Heights. :)

Anonymous said...

Hogan's already softened his position and stated he "isn't against" the Purple Line. I think he's smart enough not to piss off MoCo and PG. The only way he wins reelection is if the voters in those counties stay home again. Agitating us by scuttling well-supported transit projects probably isn't in the cards, unless Hogan doesn't care about his political future (which is always a possibility, I suppose).

G. Money said...

The suggestion that a second bridge from MoCo to VA will bring economic growth continues to be baseless conjecture. There are plenty of other ways to expand access to Dulles and otherwise improve traffic issues in the area.

The Post recently reported that 13 office buildings along Rte. 28 are completely empty. Rte. 28 runs directly alongside Dulles airport. If airport access is such a priority that we need a new bridge from VA to MD, how do you explain the terrible real estate market in such close proximity to the airport in question?

Further, the continued focus on Fortune 500 companies ignores recent economic trends, in which most job growth and economic growth is driven by innovative SMEs. Large corporations have actually seen net job losses over the past decade. If you want to promote job growth, you should make sure you are using the right metrics and targeting the right firms.

Anonymous said...

To 10:26:

Yes, I agree there's some vacancy in the Route 28 corridor, but what better solution do you have for alleviating the American Legion Bridge chokepoint? I know at evening rush hours, there's always a huge backup of cars exiting the Dulles Toll Road (coming from Loudoun direction) to get on 495N to Maryland. If there were a second bridge crossing between Loudoun and upper MoCo, that would probably reduce congestion on the AmLegion bridge.

I don't think Purple Line is dead at all. It's important to both business and residents (all except the select few in Chevy Chase), and there is currently no better option to connect Bethesda and Silver Spring corridors.

If one project were to be dropped, I'd says it's the BRT (corridor transitway) upcounty. That's got the least benefit, and it also takes out a lane of existing roadway on 355.

Robert Dyer said...

8:46: We need direct access to Dulles to attract the large corporations currently choosing to move their headquarters to Virginia, and to free up capacity on the Beltway and I-270. Economic development will far outweigh the cost, which could largely be covered by a private highway operator.

Robert Dyer said...

G. Money, where did Northrop, Hilton Hotels, Volkswagen, Intelsat, and CEB move to? Northern Virginia. You can't generalize about large corporations - that's why we need to focus on solid growth sectors like defense and aerospace, as well as tech and biotech.

Anonymous said...

Just curious, Dyer: how much longer do we need to listen to you cite companies that moved to VA 5-10 years ago? Honest question. In 2020 am I still going to have to listen about how in 2007 Volkswagen moved 400 jobs to VA and apparently changed the world as we know it?

Anonymous said...

11:02 - anectodotaly, my wife works in non profit and a lot of lower income folks along the proposed purple line don't want to see it either. They are afraid they will get pushed out of their areas as property values rise due to metro proximity.

Steve D. said...

"11:02 - anectodotaly, my wife works in non profit and a lot of lower income folks along the proposed purple line don't want to see it either. They are afraid they will get pushed out of their areas as property values rise due to metro proximity.

1:02 PM"

Interesting, that's a side of the story we don't hear about too much.

Anonymous said...

Hey Dyer, do me a favor and Google: induced demand.

Write a post on your findings.

Anonymous said...

Yeah it's not something I had thought of either, but I can see their points.

Brad Longley said...

There is a lot of debate on whether VA is doing a better job of enticing businesses to setup shop over the river versus moco's efforts. There is a lot of debate about whether a bridge would help.

Can both parties provide some credited sources to backup and explain their arguments vs simply pushing their perspective? Each argument may be evidence based but it's not clearly being enunciated to readers - hence the debate.

I did see one commentor's long list of sources about VA office space problems which was nice. Many arguments thusfar have simply the force of yelling "it's gotta be done" but no supporting evidence which would be helpful for us to make an educated decision and believe any one argument.

Thanks!!

Anonymous said...

I read up on induced demand - can you explain your reference and how it applies? Thanks! Would love to learn.

Anonymous said...

I don't think folks are carrying too much to ask the people they are supposedly helping what they really want, just implementing what they think they want.

Robert Dyer said...

Brad, I think the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments study is the most compelling statistical argument, finding that a quarter of the traffic on the Legion Bridge is traveling to or from the Dulles area. To understand better why large firms with international business need Dulles access, compare the variety and frequency of flights to major business destinations in the Middle East for example. You could book a flight out of Dulles tomorrow, whereas you might wait several days for a flight out of BWI - if they have it at all.

Another empirical fact is that fewer trucks traveling I-95 but not stopping here are using the ICC now. That means neither toll revenue, nor traffic reduction on the Beltway, are reaching their potential. Why? The ICC is not a real bypass - it just dumps through traffic back onto the Beltway in Bethesda. A new bridge connecting to Route 28 in VA would lead to a planned extension of the 28 corridor back to I-95 near Dumfries. That would be the true bypass east coast commercial traffic is looking for. By connecting the ICC to the new bridge, we could then lower tolls on the ICC, again making the whole route more appealing to private and commercial drivers.

Robert Dyer said...

7:22 The data from specific Bethesda polling places was not even public when you wrote this comment. Not very credible analysis.

Robert Dyer said...

12:53: Intelsat and CEB signed their leases in 2014, hardly "5 years ago." At the same time, no major firm has moved to Montgomery County in over a decade. Ouch. What happened 5 years ago in the Old Dominion is the least of your problems if you're trying to defend MoCo's Weekend at Bernie's economic development "record."

Robert Dyer said...

1:18 Glad you brought that up. Induced demand is a hoax. In the DC area, highways that became jammed were not related to induced demand, but to the combination of approved development with cancellation of the planned highways to support that development. The Beltway, for example, was never designed for the traffic it is forced to carry today. I-95 was planned to travel through Washington. Instead, it is carried around our Beltway. Other necessary roads canceled include the Rockville Freeway, Northwest Freeway, North Central Freeway, and the Northern Parkway. The M-83 has been delayed, as well. Add up all the capacity of those deleted roads, and you have the real culprit. Induced demand is a deceptive theory used by development interests that ignores canceled highway capacity, and irresponsible development approvals without adequate infrastructure to support the new population.

Robert Dyer said...

While I think it's definitely "transportation justice" to give residents of areas like Langley Park better access to transit, let's be serious - the monstrosity the Purple Line morphed into is designed to help developers. Period.

G. Money said...

Is there a detailed and credible plan out there for how this bridge would actually be built? Where would the bridge go? What would it connect to? How much traffic would it carry? How much would it cost? How would it compare to/be affected by public transit options? Environmental impacts of said bridge? It's not like there are a couple of major highways that run up to the river and just stop on either side.

Likewise, is there any credible evidence that the lack of a second bridge is a major factor in any of these companies choosing VA? I understand the airport proximity argument, but I'm sure there are plenty of other factors. Even if airport proximity is the number one issue for a company, how much is a second bridge going to help? It's not like a Fortune 500 company is going to move its headquarters to Poolsville.

Dyer, regarding your 3:07 post, it sounds like you're basically proposing a second beltway (at least on the western side of 95), which is a much bigger undertaking than a bridge. It's also clearly not what the ICC was intended for, but that's neither here nor there.

Anonymous said...

Montrose Parkway expansion (East) is a Montgomery County project. The state is being given money for the design, etc. by the county. And now that you brought it up, the Montrose East interchange design near Randolph and Parklawn that you support Mr. Dyer, is terribly dangerous for pedestrians. This is a vibrant, busy area and hot rights with no signals just will just not do. It is very retrogressive, involves old plans, and is not congruent with what everyone wants for this area in the future.

Robert Dyer said...

3:49 The state is funding parts of the Montrose Parkway extension, and is very much involved in the project. I would argue that the grade separation is safer, because we are keeping through traffic off of the local streets in White Flint at "ground level," where we want people to be able to bike and walk. The parkway is critical to even begin to manage the growth planned for White Flint.

Anonymous said...

test

Anonymous said...

I'm really surprised (shocked) by any level of debate. I work in Tysons and live in Bethesda. Prior to Tyson's, I worked in Reston. The commute from the spur of the Toll Road to get onto 495N through 270 spur is a massive bottleneck. It is well known by those I work with that also live in MD, that if you don't leave by 3 PM, forget about it. What should be 10 minutes from the Dulles Toll Road to River Road, can take more then an hour (easily worse if rain or sleet). It's all commuters coming from VA to home in MD somewhere. You simply can't get over the bridge b/c of traffic. So forget for the moment access to IAD and companies moving to Montgomery County and the economic impact, and just focus on the quality of life that is impacted due to traffic. There is only 1 way to get from No VA to MD and that is 495 and the choke point of the bridge. And while we are at it, how can there only be 2 lanes on 495N between the 270 spur and where it joins up with 95N again past Wisconsin? That's insane as well, as traffic is backed up for ever and ever. Again, anyone who works in VA or has to commute, knows this to be an easy easy point to make and that the bridge and 495 is antiquated and does not support our community. Anyone asking for a study, has never sat in bridge traffic for hours. And if there is a simple fender-bender, forgettabout it. Traffic comes to a stand-still.

VA improved their side. It's a heck of lot faster to get around the No. VA side of 495, then it is on the MD side now. It's gotta be one of the worst quality of life issues we face. It's a reason why people who live in DC metro think MD and VA are as far apart as Mars and Earth- b/c despite just being 100 yards across the river from each other....you can't get to the other side easily or predictably.

Anonymous said...

Just curious why you live in Bethesda and work in Tyson's? (As opposed to living where you work) I know it's not always perfect and there are many other factors other than work, but if that was a conscious decision then that's a compromise you chose to have to deal with a commute.

Anonymous said...

Lol "that's a compromise you chose to have to deal with a commute". Not so easy to live where you work these days, especially in this area! The jobs aren't always located where one can afford to live. And traffic is bad all over.

Anonymous said...

If you can afford to live in Bethesda you can afford to live in Tyson's.

Anonymous said...

Love how this commentor lopped off the "if/then" part of the statement and just quoted the end part.

Anonymous said...

Still mostly opinion and theories are all I hear.

Anonymous said...

I just find it ridiculous when people talk about living where you work!! I lived with roommates in Bethesda and could never afford my own place there on my salary! When I got my own place there weren't a lot of options but to either go up 270 or to VA in the opposite direction. My job is in the Bethesda area. There are not endless jobs for every specialty in every city that you can just leave your stable job for. I am a young professional in my 30s and the cost of housing is just getting worse and worse in the "close in" areas. So frustrating.

Anonymous said...

Whoever things traffic is not a problem, clearly doesn't have a car or commute. Saying we don't have a bridge and traffic problem with the beltway, is like saying the world is flat. Enjoy living here in your 5 mile radius.

Anonymous said...

Who wants to live in Tyson's when you can live in Bethesda?

Robert Dyer said...

G. Money (3:43), the original purpose of the ICC actually was to be a leg of the Outer Beltway, and it is still able to function as such today. West of I-370, you can see a thin strip of "parkland," which is actually a reserved highway facility. It goes slightly northwest, and then dips southwest through North Potomac and on to the river.

Because the Potomac crossing has never been formally adopted, there really are no detailed maps showing a precise crossing point. It likely would be south of the Trump golf club on the VA side, but it would be up to that state to determine the exact route to connect the bridge landing to VA Route 28.

The next obvious extension of the ICC east of I-95 would be to Bowie. Considering that a new Harry Nice Bridge is in the planning stages, I've often wondered if they could incorporate that as a southern crossing for a future Outer Beltway.

International firms moving here would more likely be in the I-270 corridor, between Bethesda and Clarksburg, to have the best access to Dulles via a new bridge. A recent survey of executives by a corporate relocation magazine cited "Transportation Infrastructure" as the number one reason companies choose a particular site.

Anonymous said...

That's a lot of conjecture. Sources?

Anonymous said...

A lot of very smart people will disagree it's a "hoax" and it makes you sound a bit crazy to say that.

Anonymous said...

This test is the smartest and truest thing anyone has said on this blog in a long while.

Robert Dyer said...

2:01 If it's not a hoax, which highway can you point to in Montgomery County as evidence of it, rather than congestion caused by the lost capacity + missing highways + irresponsible population growth approvals?

How is it "crazy" to point out that the induced demand theory is undermined by the fact that the people came first, not the highways - and in many cases the highways never appeared at all! Induced demand, in contrast, theorizes that the road comes first, and then it draws the people. As far as the interstates, that never happened here.

Robert Dyer said...

7:37: How do you categorize a road study with data as conjecture?

Robert Dyer said...

2:00 I've given sources in every instance about the argument for the new crossing. There are no "sources" for a precise route and bridge location, as none has yet been finalized.

Robert Dyer said...

2:02: Not. But I know it's tough when you can't argue on the facts.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Dyer, I have spoken to numerous people who are directly involved with the Montrose Parkway East interchange. Planning board members, designers, etc. and not that it matters too much, but the county is footing this bill, with the state being very involved, but not monetarily They are doing it on the county's dime. You are very very wrong when you say that a grade separated interchange is better for the community. It is better for people BYPASSING our community, not for all who live here. Please get your information straight before supporting something like this. I have lived in the area here for 20 years, and I have followed the plans on this parkway for over 10. Walk and bike you say? Ha! One look at the design and you will see HOT rights, with NO signals, with one particular one being at the BOTTOM of a curve. What are you talking about good for walking???? I LIVE HERE. DO YOU? There are any walkers on that stretch of Parklawn. This is SUBURBAN design, NOT something for a growing urban population, and VERY archaic. They are using plans that were made BEFORE the White Flint Sector became what it is, and even then we hated them. There are kids around here for goodness sake, who walk to the stores. Traffic coming down the hill from the HHS building during rush hour on a blind curve to 270 on a hot right----that sounds really progressive. I plan on presenting this at the mandatory referral meeting to the planning board soon, hopefully. One last ditch effort. I just gotta. These plans rot, and were snaked through without much ado.

Anonymous said...

PS, see above comment... that's MANY people who walk that stretch...and if I walk it, I usually pass at least one or two or three people at any given time of day--that's called decent FOOT traffic...

Anonymous said...

Dyer, you know nothing! Your ideas and policies are outdated, hence the reason you weren't elected. The citizens have spoken, you have no place in our county's government!

G. Money said...

Thanks Dyer, I stand corrected on the *original* intent of the ICC (from the OBW plan in the 1960s). I couldn't find anything linking the actual ICC proposal by Ehrlich to a new OBW plan, but I didn't look that hard, so maybe it's there, or maybe he thought that building the ICC would create enough momentum to spark further development.

Still, given that we're talking about a 50 year old plan, I have to think that there are plenty of other options at this point that make more sense. You've obviously been studying this longer than I, but what's wrong with plans to reduce traffic by expanding public transportation, promoting telecommuting, and encouraging people to live near their work. Obviously those solutions don't appeal to every single individual, but neither does a second bridge.

Your economic arguments are too handwavy to rely on here. To be taken seriously you need a real economic cost/benefit analysis of the entire bridge project (which is apparently the entire western OBW project), so that comparisons can be made to other options. It's not enough to say that access to Dulles will draw more int'l corps to MoCo when it's not enough to draw companies to buildings that are literally right next to Dulles.

Robert Dyer said...

6:11: The state is contributing substantial funding for the Montrose Parkway East segment over the railroad tracks to Veirs Mill Road. The last I heard, the county also wanted the state to help cover another $30M in unexpected cost increases for the project, which is split into 2 smaller projects as you know.

Robert Dyer said...

6:18: Most voters didn't even do their homework before voting. Those who read the Post and Gazette were told that the top issues facing Montgomery County were homelessness, healthcare, Styrofoam, nightlife and open data. Embarrassing. Meanwhile, Northern Virginia and even Prince George's County are cleaning our clock in economic development. Sounds like my ideas aren't so outdated after all.

Robert Dyer said...

7:41: There is no transit plan that will reduce American Legion Bridge traffic by 25%. A new bridge would. Dulles has attracted many large firms to Northern Virginia. Addressing the worst traffic congestion in America is not outdated. I notice the County Council and TAME coalition drive to the meetings at which they admonish the rest of us to "get out of our cars." Sounds like Communist China, where the government restricts driving while party bosses drive German luxury cars and even have walled-off private parking lots. The case for the new bridge gets stronger every day. No CEO has ever said he or she wanted BRT; they have cited their need for direct access to Dulles Airport.

Anonymous said...

You're right, about 75,000 voters didn't do their homework and mistakenly voted for you! ha

Anonymous said...

"I notice the County Council and TAME coalition drive to the meetings at which they admonish the rest of us to "get out of our cars."

You stalked all of them in the parking lot? Really?

"Sounds like Communist China, where the government restricts driving while party bosses drive German luxury cars and even have walled-off private parking lots"

Lame. No one's restricting anyone's driving, or even advocating in favor of that, just advocating alternatives to driving.

Robert Dyer said...

1:26 You've got it backwards. I actually have credible ideas and didn't have to cower behind the skirts of the Washington Post and Gazette like your pals George Leventhal and Hans Riemer did.

Robert Dyer said...

1:51: All 9 Council members have said publicly, on numerous occasions, that they drive to work rather than use transit. No need to stalk; I couldn't find a parking space at the M-83 hearing in Germantown because so many cars with "NO to M-83, Yes to transit" TAME bumper stickers were parked in the lot! Time to take the Hypocritical Oath like the Chinese officials have.

Anonymous said...

You know what's really funny? Robert whining about anonymous trolls, and then anonymously trolling BethesdaNow, this week as "MoCoYRs".

Anonymous said...

"MyMCMedia"

I read that as "MyChlamydia".

Robert Dyer said...

3:03: This just shows how out-of-touch you are with politics outside of the MoCo Machine. The Montgomery County Young Republicans are active on social media under that screen name. I know the guy who posts a lot for them. I don't recall seeing any comment that even mentioned me, so why would you make such a preposterous allegation? Sad.

Woodmont said...

Anonymous puts his tinfoil hat on...

Anonymous said...

Funny anonymous says Robert's ideas are out of date. Meanwhile the MoCo council is trying their best to stop Uber and want to prop up Barwood cabs.
You'll continue to see pro Barwood posts on other blogs, courtesy of Barwood's PR/lobbying firm, Chesapeake.

G. Money said...

Dyer, I can't speak to whether there are other plans to reduce traffic over the AL Bridge by 25%, but there are other plans to address traffic along that route.

For example (and I don't have the cba here but I think one was done) a metro line could be built connecting the Red Line from White Flint (or wherever) to the Silver Line in Tysons.

Another issue worth considering, is that we may very well see driverless cars on the road by the time that any bridge you're proposing could be built. Just ask your boy Newt. It may take several more years before widespread adoption occurs, so I don't want to make fanciful predictions, but it's a legitimate technology that will significantly affect the way we think about traffic congestion.

Anonymous said...

"Funny anonymous says Robert's ideas are out of date. Meanwhile the MoCo council is trying their best to stop Uber and want to prop up Barwood cabs."

This idea, and Dyer's ideas are out of date. Just because I disagree with Dyer doesn't mean I agree with everything the Council is doing. Nice try though.

Robert Dyer said...

G. Money, here's an idea worth considering: A Red to Silver Line connection would be helpful, though would not provide the traffic relief a new bridge would. Why not run a new Metro line from Shady Grove down the middle of the extension of I-370 across the Potomac to the Silver Line? It would save a tremendous amount on construction, and provide the benefits of both.

I agree autonomous vehicles will be critical to reducing congestion and parking facilities in urban areas, so we shouldn't leave road construction out of transportation spending.

Robert Dyer said...

6:10: My ideas are out of date? Then why is Virginia killing us in economic development, after focusing on highways and Metro capacity, just as I've suggested we do on this side of the river?

Anonymous said...

I really don't care where the money is coming from for Montrose Parkway East.I'm not a money wonk. We are taxed for it either way. The issue is the safety of the interchange, which you conveniently did not address, not unlike the grand highway exalted mystic rulers on the state and the county levels, who in essence are passing the responsibility off on one another.I do know the county is paying for much of it, if not all. The funding plans have changed over the years, and the state did not have the money to contribute handily. They were at one point going to. I don't think you are realizing how much is coming out of MoCo's fat pockets. The state has the engineering expertise, so the county is paying them for the designs. I am mostly concerned about the interchange. I have studied the plans and they are disastrous. The planning board approved them, with Mr. Casey Anderson being the solitary voice of reason dissenting.( my deepest gratitude ) One member even questioned if anyone even walks around here--he couldn't see people just taking a "leisurely stroll" or something to that effect, on Randolph. How this person can make an important infrastructure decision without even knowing our neighborhood is biz as usual in your almighty road building world.

Anonymous said...

PS...I must give credit to the Planning Board staff, as they recommended something different than the interchange. They were the people who knew better, and their expertise was nullified. We shall see what will become of the mandatory referral, which will be at some undetermined date...

Robert Dyer said...

6:09: The County is paying quite a bit of the two projects' cost, but the state is making a huge contribution. I definitely understand the concern about the interchange, but the problem is that a slowed-down, backed-up Montrose Parkway will have impacts on congestion in White Flint and beyond. We are going to have to extend the Montrose Parkway in the future to Connecticut Avenue, Georgia Avenue and eventually to the ICC. If we cripple the parkway in White Flint, it will have long-term ramifications for traffic countywide.

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