Friday, January 23, 2015

SUBURBS CONTINUE TO OUTPACE CITIES IN GROWTH, DESPITE MOCO POLITICIANS' PREDICTIONS OTHERWISE

Lawns. Backyards. Trees. Cleaner air. Supersize SUVs. Low crime. Peace and quiet. Free parking. Strip malls. Indoor malls. Full-size parks. Drive-thru dining. Good schools. And $2.11 gas* - (in Chevy Chase, Maryland?!)

Americans still want all of the above. They want the suburban lifestyle, and are voting for it with their pocketbooks and mortgage checks, according to the latest trend study by real estate website Trulia. And you can expect that trend to continue, says Trulia's Chief Economist Jed Kolko, Ph.D.

The latest figures and anecdotal evidence suggest that millennials are heading for the exits in "hip" urban areas, priced out by the recent real estate boom in urban multifamily housing, and seeking to escape poor schools and higher rates of crime. Even in urban areas where murders may be reduced, frequent burglaries, auto break-ins, and thefts of packages delivered are more than mere annoyances for all but the heartiest of gentrifiers.

Last year, population growth of suburbs again outpaced that of cities, and the Trulia study confirms it was not an anomaly, despite media hype that has tried to suggest the suburbs are dying.

In July 2013, Montgomery County Councilmember George Leventhal (D-At-Large) declared the suburbs were "a mistake." (Kind of ironic, for a Councilmember who lives in the suburbs himself, and represents a majority-suburban jurisdiction, don't you think?) The County Council, with the exception of Marc Elrich (D-At-Large), has voted repeatedly to urbanize the suburban areas of the county. Yet the studies show they are out of step with reality, and what the public is demanding in 2015.

"Today, the vast majority of young renters aspire to own," Kolko writes. "Homeownership remains core to the American Dream. The future of the suburbs looks bright," he concludes.

"As millennials get older, many will follow a familiar path: They’ll partner up, have kids, and move to the suburbs. Urban living starts to decline after ages 25-29," Kolko notes.

Kolko suggests that the appearance of the average age dropping in urban areas in the last decade was more a result of older people fleeing cities, than of millennials moving in. In fact, the number of people over 45 living in urban areas has dropped since 2013, the study indicates.

The Trulia study dovetails perfectly with the evidence and sentiments in the Washington Post article linked to above, in that young people are not planning to stick with urban living for more than a few years. And suburban residents are more satisfied, and more likely to say they're staying where they live now for the long haul.

"Urban residents feel the tug of the suburbs. For every 10 suburbanites who said they wanted to live in an urban area in five years, 16 urban dwellers said they wished to live in the suburbs. Even among young adults aged 18-34— who are more likely to live in urban areas than older adults are—more wanted to move from city to suburbs than the other way around," Kolko says.

Pressure by developers to urbanize suburban areas like Westbard in Bethesda, Twinbrook in Rockville, and White Oak in Silver Spring is driven by the pursuit of profits. But examining the current trends and data suggests the desires of the developers and County Council do not match what the majority of Americans are seeking today - the suburban lifestyle. 

*Regular gas is $2.11 a gallon at the Giant gas station at 8500 Connecticut Avenue, in Chevy Chase Lake, as of this writing. Source: GasBuddy.com

Photo: Library of Congress Online Collection

47 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Washington Post article to which you link says nothing about the people featured in it saying that they "want the suburban lifestyle". Just that they are looking for a cheaper living arrangement than what is currently available in the heart of the city.

Anonymous said...

And the very fact that real estate costs continue to rise in the heart of DC, should indicate to you that people find that area a very desirable place to live.

Anonymous said...

There's a lot of fresh data saying folks want the suburbs.

The WSJ just had a piece titled "The End of the Suburbs and Four Other American Migration Myths".

Anonymous said...

Just because someone cannot afford to live in a dense urban area does not mean they prefer not to.
So would you say that people prefer Honda Civics to Porsche 911s since more people buy Honda Civics? Come on Robert, you're better than that (well, maybe you're not).

Anonymous said...

He's clearly not better than anything...

Robert Dyer said...

8:32: Actually, this study cited in this article found that, indeed, people in urban areas are eager to get out and head to the suburbs. And they are less satisfied than suburban residents. That completely refutes what you are saying about preference.

Anonymous said...

Dyer, this may be a difficult concept for you to grasp but despite what the report says that nationally, people "prefer suburbs", that does not necessarily apply to every single are in the country. Developers won't build what they can't sell/rent, they are obviously building high-density developments because that is where the demand lies. But keep spewing your nonsense and we'll keep laughing at you.

Robert Dyer said...

8:54: They're also building single-family homes here. So, what does that prove?

Robert Dyer said...

7:16: Real estate costs are rising in Clarksburg, Adamstown and Fredericksburg, indicating they are also very desirable places to live.

Robert Dyer said...

7:21: Yes, a lot of the media reports are from people stuck in a 2011 info loop. The anomaly passed, and backyard barbeque grills are again firing up across America, with sizzling steaks from the Walmart Supercenter.

Robert Dyer said...

7:14: And the public school situation in DC? #Oops

Anonymous said...

Another one-side, hyperbolic rant.

I don't think anyone claimed that the suburbs were done, including the "MoCo politicians."

The only thing happening is that instead of shrinking, like most of them have been doing from the five decades ~1950-2000, major cities are starting to grow and revitalize. This growth is driven by millennials who want to be closer to work and entertainment, and have other transportation options.

Washington D.C. is an excellent example. Even Baltimore, which has been hemorrhaging residents for half a century, has started to reverse the flow. Clearly though, EVERYONE clearly isn't moving to the city.

When millennials get older and want to start a family, (and send their kids to good schools) they'll move back. The cycle will remain in place though. Urban growth/renewal will still continue for at least another decade or two, pending some extraneous shock, no matter how much you hate it...

Anonymous said...

*one-sided

Anonymous said...

Read the entire article before replying:

"So while the overall share of Americans living in "urban" areas may well have decreased a bit over the past several years, that tells you exactly nothing about what sorts of "non-urban" areas people are moving to, or would like to move to, for that matter. It's not a "myth" that "the suburbs" were dying because "the suburbs" were never all one thing to begin with, and that's even less the case today than it was five or ten years ago. To jump to the conclusion that Americans prefer to live in car-dependent sprawl out of surveys and data of this sort—ones that fail to identify crucial differences in the development patterns of communities that lie outside major downtowns—is to take a risky leap."

http://www.citylab.com/housing/2015/01/of-course-the-suburbs-arent-dying-theyre-not-all-the-same/384781/

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Robert. You are entirely correct about the mistake of MoCo planners to urbanize areas such as Westbard or Chevy Chase Lake. Even DC doesn't try this in Spring Valley, AU or other areas.

Anonymous said...

This post is such a simplistic way of looking at land use trends and preferences. It's not surprising that Dyer appears incapable of examining issues on a deeper level. Either that or he simply looks at things on a cursory level because probing deeper makes clear his opinions are baseless.

Anonymous said...

" They want the suburban lifestyle, and are voting for it with their pocketbooks and mortgage checks"

Uh, no. I hate when Dyer tries to evoke capitalism when he knows nothing of it. If "pocketbooks" prove suburbs are so in-vogue then why does my Rockville home cost $400K when the DC townhome I wish I could live in/afford costs $2.2M? Capitalism and the market proves you're incorrect, Dyer.

I wish more than anything I could afford to live in a nice city neighborhood. I, and plenty others, can't - hence we're forced to live in cheaper suburban neighborhoods. There have been plenty of studies showing the vast majority of Millennials (others as well, but especially Millennials) want an urbanized, walkable lifestyle. Of course most people can't afford to live in downtown Bethesda, DC, etc. but of course most wish they could. This is widely known, regularly reported, common sense.

Anonymous said...

"[P]robing deeper makes clear his opinions are baseless."

He never, ever reevaluates his own premises, which are a bizarre and utterly contradictory mishmash of Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street talking points.

Anonymous said...

Was this entire article just quotes from other articles and rephrasing?

Anonymous said...

Dyer's post links to actual surveys and data. Most of the comments are opinion here. That's great, but I'll go with actual data.

People have their personal preferences. Not all people want to live in a dense city in a smaller space. I prefer an urban environment, but why not give the choice for those that prefer a more suburban lifestyle?

Anonymous said...

Yes I am loving the source links and quotes from Dyer!

Anonymous said...

"It's not a 'myth' that 'the suburbs' were dying because 'the suburbs' were never all one thing to begin with."

http://www.citylab.com/housing/2015/01/of-course-the-suburbs-arent-dying-theyre-not-all-the-same/384781/

Of course "suburbs" like Bethesda, Silver Spring, and Rockville are thriving - and for obvious reasons. And it's not because of "supersize (sic) SUVs" and "strip malls" like Dyer stupidly claims.

Robert Dyer said...

9:31: I'm hearing a new talking point now that suburbs are "in" again - that some suburbs aren't really suburbs, "and that explains it!!"

Well, that doesn't explain it. This survey clearly differentiated cities, suburbs and rural categories. And more people wanted suburban living than cities. The vast majority of Montgomery County is made up of strip mall commercial areas and low-density residential.

The commenter above who referred to cost could have lived in a luxury townhome in Frederick County or Clarksburg, or a single-family home in DC for the same $400,000 price. So clearly he or she had other reasons besides price in choosing Rockville. I won't try to mind read, but I can say that Rockville has low crime, good schools and convenient shopping with free parking, while DC can claim none of the above. Hence the draw of the suburbs.

Nothing stupid about my claim about strip malls and SUVs. Rockville Town Square is struggling with their paid garage parking, as people clearly prefer free, surface parking at competing retail centers. And sales of large suvs are booming.

Anonymous said...

Why does Dyer keep ignoring the fact that you get two hours of free parking with validation at Rockville Town Square?

And why does Dyer keep assuming that Rockville Town Square is "strugging with their garage parking"? Bethesda Row has no free parking at all (unless you count the temporary situation at the new garage), and is doing just fine.

Anonymous said...

Bethesda Row isn't RTC. RTC competes with Rio and other centers with free parking.

Anonymous said...

What part of "2 hours free with validation" do you have trouble understanding?

Anonymous said...

That doesn't even cover dinner and a movie.

Retailers in the Square have cited parking cost as an issue for years. That's why FRIT had free parking during this past holiday season.

Flynn said...

2 hours free will help get my butt into Rockville town center, even if I have to cover more. Baseline with these walkable communities is to pay, so anything free I'll happily take it.

Anonymous said...

Actually the movie theater (Regal Rockville Center Stadium 13) is in a separate site from Rockville Town Square. So you can park in the Rockville Town Square garage, do a little shopping, have dinner, validate the ticket, and then when it's time for the movie, you can drive over to the theater, and park there for $1.50-$2.00. Not exactly a budget-buster. Or you can take the Metro and not have to worry about parking at all.

Anonymous said...

Isn't the movie theater within walking distance of the town square? Why would you drive over to park again?

Anonymous said...

Yes, the movie theater is literally across the street from Town Square.

Again, 2 hours doesn't cover dinner & a movie.

Anonymous said...

RTS parking rates (with validation)

Up to 3 hours: $2

Up to 4 hours: $3

Anonymous said...

Rockville doesn't have convenient shopping. Every try to drive up the Pike on the weekend?

Plus I would choose my kids DC elementary school over any Montgomery County Elementary school.

The suburbs are a "mistake" because they weren't planned correctly and now are a mess of cars and strip malls. Rockville is a mistake, although the town center concept around metros is a good one.

Most Americans would consider Rockville to be a city anyway, not a suburb based on the density.

Anonymous said...

I'm so glad that most of the stores where I used to go to shop on the Pike now have locations in Bethesda, Friendship Heights or Tenley. I don't shop on the Pike unless I absolutely have to do so. Now, it's really just down to Bed Bath & Beyond and Target, and Sports Authority or Aardvark if I can't find what I need at Modell's. And maybe MicroCenter, Ross, REI and Advance Auto Parts once in a blue moon.

Anonymous said...

And in terms of restaurants, there is Mykonos, and Silver Diner, which is opening a location in Bethesda soon.

And and then there is... {crickets}

(Unless you have an utterly desperate craving for Wendy's or Taco Bell.)

Robert Dyer said...

5:43: Is it a DC public school or a charter or private? I do drive Rockville Pike on the weekend, and it is convenient to park - and free to park, unlike DC.

If the suburbs are a mistake, why are Americans embracing them in greater numbers than urban areas?

Rockville is primarily low-density, suburban residential neighborhoods surrounding the commercial spine of Rockville Pike. While it is technically a city by its incorporation, it is suburban in character. Single-family homes are a majority of housing units in Rockville.

Robert Dyer said...

7:22: They also have Matchbox and Target. It's just plain weird that Bethesda doesn't have any fast food restaurants besides McDonald's, and certainly does lead to a lot of wasted gas and auto emissions when people have to drive all the way to Rockville for Taco Bell and Wendy's.

Anonymous said...

Free to park, inconvenient to get around.

"[It] certainly does lead to a lot of wasted gas and auto emissions when people have to drive all the way to Rockville for Taco Bell and Wendy's."

I'm sure that there are a lot of Bethesda residents who make trips up and down the Pike every single day just so that they can eat at those places. {eye roll}

"It's just plain weird that Bethesda doesn't have any fast food restaurants besides McDonald's"

I believe that you meant to type, "it's very unfortunate, yet expected, that Westbard doesn't have any other dining options besides McDonald's."

Or did you somehow forget that the McDonald's on East-West Highway has been closed for nearly 2 1/2 years?

Anonymous said...

"If the suburbs are a mistake, why are Americans embracing them in greater numbers than urban areas?"

And once again, Dyer shifts into his "La la la... I can't hear you... la la la..." mode.

G. Money said...

Dyer, I'm not sure that I follow your conclusions drawn from the Trulia survey, but frankly I find it hard to follow their own conclusions.

They make the distinction between urban and suburban based on the percentage of housing that is single family homes per zip code (basically). I'd love to see a map of what areas qualify as urban vs. suburban based on this definition. In particular I wonder if areas like Friendship Heights and Tenleytown are described as suburban under this metric. They don't seem to indicate how rural is defined.

To make it more confusing, they don't use these definitions in the survey, but instead let respondents give their own definitions. One might imagine that a resident of the East Village and an Iowa farmer might have somewhat different conceptions of the meaning of these words. Since it's a national survey we also have to assume that the respondents are randomly dispersed. Even a hipster in the heart of Des Moines may have a pretty different definition of these words than either of the aforementioned examples.

Even further, they don't seem to have asked people why they have the preferences they do. That's why your conclusions at the beginning of your post don't follow. They didn't ask, "Do you want to move to the suburbs so you can drive an SUV?" Maybe they do, maybe they don't. There's no data indicating this either way.

Lastly, they brush over the fact that both urban and suburban locales are hypothetically losing people to rural areas. So what does that mean, that people prefer being farmers? Again, I don't know. Trulia presumably doesn't care that much because there isn't money to be made in rural development (since once you develop it, it's no longer rural).

Anonymous said...

"[T]hey brush over the fact that both urban and suburban locales are hypothetically losing people to rural areas."

I blame the Piedmont Environmental Council.

http://robertdyer.blogspot.com/2015/01/montgomery-county-whipped-by-northern.html

Anonymous said...

"Montgomery County Councilmember George Leventhal (D-At-Large) declared the suburbs were 'a mistake.' (Kind of ironic, for a Councilmember who lives in the suburbs himself..."

Leventhal lives in Takoma Park. That's not the first area that comes to mind when I hear the phrase, "sprawling low-density suburb".

Also, the only place that I can find any mention of Leventhal declaring that "the suburbs were a mistake" is on your two blogs. Perhaps you could provide the original quote in its actual context?

Robert Dyer said...

Money, I recall it mentioned the use of density in classifying areas as urban or suburban. In my personal opinion, I don't believe Friendship Heights would qualify as suburban because it is almost entirely multifamily housing. The single-family neighborhoods nearby are not Friendship Heights, but primarily Chevy Chase DC, Somerset or Brookdale.

On the flip side, I personally consider Spring Valley and the Palisades to be suburban, even though they are within the District. The retail in the Palisades is a little more urban in terms of not having parking in front along MacArthur. If someone moves there, I would argue they are definitely not seeking urban living.

I'll agree that my list does not necessarily mean everyone choosing the suburbs had those factors in mind, or agrees with me that all of those are positive.

Robert Dyer said...

8:31: News flash: Westbard is in Bethesda. The lack of dining options was the fault of Dr. Tauber and Capital Properties. Great restaurants like Chef Geoff's and Matchbox are located in -yes- traditional strip malls in Rockville. Even Aspen Hill has an Outback steak house. There's no need for urbanization to get restaurants. Please. The Stockholm Syndrome is not a planning tool (but that won't stop the MoCo Machine from trying to use it).

Robert Dyer said...

4:05: Yes, he said it during a County Council session on July 2 or 3, 2013.

I would argue that much of Takoma Park is very suburban. And, importantly, has stronger restrictions on growth than the county, to keep it that way.

Mighty rich of Mr. Leventhal and Mr. Riemer to preach urbanization for the rest of us, while they themselves hide in a protected suburban enclave.

Anonymous said...

"Even Aspen Hill has an Outback steak house. There's no need for urbanization to get restaurants."

LOL, is this statement meant to be taken seriously?

G. Money said...

5:50: Right, they used density, but it was based on zip code, and since Friendship, Tenley, Spring Valley and the Palisades are all in 20016 they are all classified the same (which we agree is silly).

But again, our view of these places doesn't necessarily reflect the view that people from widely different locales would. A more meaningful survey would ask people about what they actually want from their living situation, thereby informing developers as to what people want/don't want, and what people actually mean by these otherwise ambiguous labels.