Thursday, October 08, 2015

Montgomery County's low unemployment rate doesn't mean jobs were created in the county

Montgomery County is again touting its low unemployment rate, reported by the Maryland DLLR as 3.8% in August, according to an official County press release. While it's always good news that residents are employed, and it would be fine if the press release stopped there, unfortunately it goes further.

The release proceeds to give credit for the increase to the County's "Six-Point Economic Plan designed to make the County even more competitive in business attraction and job growth."

Whoops. Unemployment rate has absolutely nothing to do with the county's job creation rate, which was far behind Northern Virginia counties and the District of Columbia during the same period. Add the qualifier of high-wage jobs, and MoCo's share plunges even further. And speaking of "business attraction," the County hasn't "attracted" a single major corporate headquarters to relocate here in over a decade.

Montgomery County's low unemployment is due to the many jobs being created outside of its borders in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Arlington counties and the District, which its residents travel to each morning on the congested roads of our unfinished highway system.

In fact, Montgomery County's 3.8% unemployment rate itself isn't special in the region at all. Arlington County (2.7%), the City of Alexandria (3.2%) and Loudoun County (3.4%) all beat MoCo in August, while cleaning our clocks in job creation. Those numbers come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as of September 30, 2015.

Another "Four Pinocchios"/"Pants on Fire" fact check rating for Montgomery County's political machine. We may have low unemployment, but our County's economic development remains moribund.

52 comments:

Anonymous said...

What are the job creation rates of the counties you cite? What is your source?

Anonymous said...

Dyer refuses to get a job because he wants to keep the unemployment rate from falling further. Sheer spite, I tell you.

Anonymous said...

What are the numbers? How many jobs (if any) were created in the county? I get an error when I go to the press release link.

I agree unemployment rate isn't a great measure if people are just working in VA or DC, but let's see the numbers on jobs in the county. What happened to those?

Anonymous said...

Do you realize that the road network of the District is even more "unfinished" in terms of the freeway plans of the 1950s and 1960s?

Robert Dyer said...

12:49: That would be an accurate statement. Of course, several of the unbuilt DC freeways were to extend into Montgomery County.

Robert Dyer said...

12:48: The press release didn't give any job creation numbers. MoCo has been behind Northern Virginia and DC month after month in job creation for years now. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers are accurate. The County paid EMSI to generate fake, inflated numbers, so don't be mislead by those.

Anonymous said...

So do you know the numbers to reference in your comparison? Understand your point about unemployment, but without knowing the jobs numbers in our county versus others there's no way to say one is doing better or worse than the other in that area.

Anonymous said...

Does the unemployment rate count illegal immigrants?

Anonymous said...

Would love a link to actual employment figures, because the latest ones I can find (from 1H14) show employment declines in Arlington and Alexandria vs. increases in Montgomery County.

Anonymous said...

This article and the source it cites doesn't provide enough data to make any claims in any direction. What are the jobs numbers in MoCo? And in comparison to NoVa? Or the rest of the country?

Anonymous said...

@ 2:27 PM - Did a Mexican steal your ditch-digging job?

Poor you.

Anonymous said...

So Dyer is back to his two talking points on how he would "create jobs":

1) Build freeways that the residents of the region rejected 40 years ago, and that they continue to reject; and

2) Poach corporate headquarters from other states, yielding 500 new jobs that are mostly HR and corporate lobbying.

Mick M. said...

Hey guys wouldn't it be great if there was a blog that had some great hyper local info and now and again we sprinkle highly contested opinions and not support out statements as well as ignore rational and reasonable questions!!

Robert Dyer said...

Mick, nobody can contest that MoCo has created less jobs than the other jurisdictions frequently compared with it. My favorite moment I often refer to was being in the audience at a County Council hearing in the spring of 2011. The head of the County Chamber of Commerce read the latest Fairfax vs. Montgomery County job creation numbers, and there was an audible gasp from the audience. That's how badly they're killing us. Do you think the Chamber is irrational and unreasonable?

Robert Dyer said...

3:09: 500 new high-wage jobs we're not getting now. I'll buy that for a dollar.

The sensible plans you're criticizing just happen to address some of our biggest problems - jammed highways and not a single major corporation moving here in over a decade. How can you criticize, when your guys on the Council have proven totally impotent to do anything about it?

Anonymous said...

"The press release didn't give any job creation numbers. MoCo has been behind Northern Virginia and DC month after month in job creation for years now."

You're an idiot, Dyer. MD has returned to dominating VA ever since Pentagon funding dried up. Way to type an entire blog post completely devoid of fact. It must piss you off so much that so many people in MoCo are successful while you flounder.

Anonymous said...

I don't get this -- why is Dyer not posting the numbers? What were the job creation numbers in MoCo and neighboring counties? That seems like the key information that we're missing.

Robert Dyer said...

8:07: Total BS. There's no credible data that shows Montgomery County beating NoVa or DC in jobs created. Only that fake EMSI study that the County used taxpayer money to generate for personal political game. That should be investigated by the Inspector General, not used as a reference by any serious economist.

Every sentence in this post is verifiable fact. I challenge anyone to look it up.

Anonymous said...

"Just Google it!" says Rosie O'Dyer.

Anonymous said...

Hey I just googled "'job creation rates' Montgomery county maryland". All I get is this blog post and a bunch of articles about legalizing marijuana.

Please show us your comparison statistics as far as job creation rates. You did so for the unemployment rates. At very least provide your source for the job creation rates.

Anonymous said...

Without the relevant jobs data, this article would more appropriately be titled "Montgomery County's low unemployment rate doesn't necessarily mean jobs were created in the county"

Anonymous said...

So where is the credible data showing NoVa jobs creations vs MoCo jobs creations? Not debating, just haven't seen that either. Only claims yhat the EMSI data isn't to your liking.

Anonymous said...

Maybe the more appropriate statement is devoid of supporting evidence and credible sources not named Robert Dyer.

Anonymous said...

So where are you getting your own numbers from? Sources please! Otherwise it's just conjecture and opinion, wouldn't you agree?

I'm not doubting you at all. You just haven't provided any supporting evidence to back up your claim. Which may certainly be true, it just takes more than your word and avoidance of providing a source to believe you.

Anonymous said...

If dyer would just post his sources and references for his job creation data in MoCo vs NoVa, this would end a lot of the back and forth here. He keeps avoiding the question though.

Anonymous said...

I am not an economist or labor expert. Is there a national job creation metric? How is it measured?

Anonymous said...

I found some data on the following link: http://www.bls.gov/web/metro/metro_oty_change.htm. But in this table the Montgomery county information appears to be in aggregate with DC and NoVa information.

The Columbia-Baltimore-Townson metro area is showing strong job growth. Maybe we ought to be comparing the DC region with the Baltimore region instead of Montgomery County to Fairfax.

Anonymous said...

Dyer is entitled to his own opinion.

He's not entitled to his own facts.

Anonymous said...

Is there credible data then the other way around which you suggest?

Anonymous said...

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, will someone please link to the job creation numbers by county!? Let's see the facts.

Anonymous said...

Looking at http://mdbiznews.commerce.maryland.gov there seems to be new business--just not in MoCo

Robert Dyer said...

6:34: Anybody who claims MoCo has created more jobs than NoVa or DC in any recent year is obviously on another planet. Are you now questioning the BLS, DLLR and Chamber of Commerce? Talk about your "own facts"!

Anonymous said...

I don't think any of us are claiming anything right now. We are simply asking us to prove your claim that NoVa job creations are better than MoCo and MoCo job creations are poor overall. Sources? Stats? References?

Mick M said...

Dyer's silence speaks volumes. Why won't he respond to very logical questions and requests? Why won't he provide sources and references?

I don't agree or disagree with his or the counties points except not willing to provide any supporting evidence says a lot about one's character.

Robert Dyer said...

1:50: MoCo job creation being light years behind Fairfax, et al, has been talked to death for years in politics and the press. Are you new to the area?

Mick, MoCo creating less jobs than NoVa, DC is accepted fact, kind of like the sun rising in the morning. No serious person is suggesting otherwise.

Anonymous said...

So why can't you provide any sources?

Lots of sources for the sun rising in the morning.

Anonymous said...

Funny thing about all the graspers - how do they know? Do they have data of their own? Other data sources?

Anonymous said...

Let's be realistic here. Any argument for or against needs reliable references and supporting evidence. Simply saying so doesn't make it so. This topic obviously being very important to Dyer, and many readers asking, why not just produce data to back up your claims?

Anonymous said...

Even the county provided a source (EMDI was it?) - whether you believe the source or not. Simply arguing that it is fake and not providing any support to your claim doesn't travel very far. Imagine going to court and not providing any evidence...

Anonymous said...

Or imagine writing a college thesis and providing no footnotes or bibliography.

Anonymous said...

Even grade school kids taught by our lovely MCPS know to provide sources.

Betsy said...

I have never seen someone so adamant in an opinion be so unwilling to provide supporting evidence for a seemingly smart position. It's baffling why Robert just doesn't provide this info to shut up his naysayers with some real evidence.

Mick M said...

Maybe he can't? I dunno why he isn't. So weird.

G. Money said...

Dyer will continue to resort to ad hominem attacks and evasion until people lose track of this discussion. It's what he always does.

Anonymous said...

How does it make sense to dispute one set of data and not provide an alternative to support a position? Terms like "light years ahead" and "accepted fact, kind of like the sun rising in the morning" hardly qualify as hard fact and evidence.

Anonymous said...

Dodging Dyer.

Anonymous said...

#dodgingdyer isn't answering the questions

Anonymous said...

And his MO is proven once again.

Anonymous said...

#DodgingDyer won't answer the easy questions. How d the people of montgomery county expect him to respond to the hard ones if elected?

Robert Dyer said...

3:30: The traffic congestion and job creation numbers, zero major corporate headquarters attracted in over a decade, MCPS achievement gap increase and exam failure rates prove that our current councilmembers have utterly failed to "respond to the hard ones".

B said...

No doubt those are big issues.

Yet here you sit on the sidelines. Unelected again. Wonder why that is if your policies and ability to respond to and work out the hard ones is so strong as you insist?

And yet you still dodge the questions of supplying supporting evidence.

Robert B. said...

It is very strange and a sign of the person who avoids answering questions. Even an easy one such as a cited source.

#dodgingDyer